The Occasional Observer

These are interesting states to poll for head-to-head matchups. KY is a border/Southern state, a traditionally GOP state that Dems are able to pick off in years when they win. OH is a closely divided state, with a Dem governor and split Senators, and a state that the GOP must win to take the general. I don't think the GOP has ever won the White House without taking Ohio.

With that in mind, one has to admit that the Rudy campaign's "electability" talking point is basically in tatters, even though these are RV and not LV polls.

First, Ohio:

SurveyUSA Ohio Presidential Election

Hillary Clinton 49% (49%)
Rudy Giuliani 41% (40%)

Barack Obama 49% (40%)
Rudy Giuliani 41% (46%)

Hillary Clinton 47% (51%)
Mike Huckabee 46% (39%)

Mike Huckabee 46% (42%)
Barack Obama 46% (43%)

Hillary Clinton 49% (51%)
Mitt Romney 41% (40%)

Barack Obama 51% (43%)
Mitt Romney 39% (42%)

John McCain 48% (45%)
Hillary Clinton 46% (45%)

John McCain 50% (47%)
Barack Obama 43% (38%)

Survey of 535 registered voters was conducted January 4-6, 2008. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 13-15, 2007 are in parentheses.

Next, KY:

SurveyUSA Kentucky Presidential Election

Rudy Giuliani 46% (45%)
Hillary Clinton 44% (47%)

Rudy Giuliani 47% (50%)
Barack Obama 41% (40%)

Hillary Clinton 48% (48%)
Mitt Romney 42% (44%)

Barack Obama 44% (40%)
Mitt Romney 43% (46%)

Mike Huckabee 53% (46%)
Hillary Clinton 41% (47%)

Mike Huckabee 54% (51%)
Barack Obama 35% (38%)

John McCain 51% (50%)
Hillary Clinton 41% (44%)

John McCain 54% (53%)
Barack Obama 35% (35%)

Survey of 554 registered voters was conducted January 4-6, 2008. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 13-15, 2007 are in parentheses. In the 2004 election, President Bush defeated Senator Kerry in Kentucky, 60-40%.

HT: Aron Goldman