The Occasional Observer

3 comments:

SheaHeyKid said...

The whole thing is wide open and a cluster-F. Romney has most total delegates so far, and as he characterizes it "two silvers and a gold" thus making him the only candidate to place in top 2 in all 3 votes so far. But, since he's unlikely to win SC he needs a win in MI to really be legit.

I don't see McCain picking up many other states, unless it's a state where Independents who normally would vote in Dem primary instead vote in Repub and pick McCain. I think all other states go to Huck, Mitt, or possibly Rudy. So I'm not quite sure where McCain goes from here, unless his win in NH gives him such a boost that he starts winning states he otherwise would not have.

I don't see Fred Thompson beating Mitt, McCain, or Huck in any state, not sure whether he drops out soon, or thinks he somehow has a chance at a brokered convention.

It also seems unlikely that Rudy's "come from behind" strategy will give him enough momentum to lock up the nomination, so he may be done as well.

In watching the post-primary speeches last night I thought mitt came across as the most presidential. McCain picked up some good momentum later in his speech, but at the beginning he seemed kind of tired. Huck to me, in that speech, came across far more like "your buddy" or a fun guy to hang out with, but not presidential.

1/09/2008 7:46 AM

Fredo said...

Without a win in MI he's surely done. He's probably done anyway. "Two silvers and a gold" is great spin, but nonsense. No one other than Mitt and Duncan Hunter actively campaigned in WY.

Mitt outspent the opposition by gonzo totals in IA and NH and couldn't win either, both times to candidates with much smaller bank rolls and GOTV organizations. And NH was basically home base, with 2/3 of its voters living in the same media market where he was governor.

Mitt needs to prove he can actually win a contested election, something he hasn't done in his best two opportunities to do so. He's also blown two large leads.

His best chance now is to get picked for Veep (possible if Huck or Rudy were to get the nomination, but not JMac), spend 4 or 8 years toiling in the background, and come back when his ideological contortions seem far enough in the past that he can build up a conservative track record with a little consistency.

1/09/2008 10:22 AM

Fredo said...

BTW, MI is also an open primary, where you can pick which party you want to vote for.

With the Dem primary having been gutted (the DNC punished them for screwing with calendar and stripped all their delegates; I think Hill's the only one who's campaigned there), there's the chance that all the independents and even some of the Dems will vote GOP, where the results actually count.

Protium (who is living in the thick of the situation) expects a lot of shenanigans, with Dems voting for Ron Paul just to send a message.

1/09/2008 10:25 AM