The Occasional Observer

2 comments:

SheaHeyKid said...

Interesting analysis.. Although if Mitt starts to slip and McCain and Huck become front-runners, I think you will see them start taking more shots at each other, although probably not causing an irreparable split.

I think the best case (although unlikely) would be a Mitt-Huck pairing, since it should lock up and energize 100% of the Republican base, even more so than McCain-Huck (still leaves FiCons searching, especially if Bloomberg runs).

That said, if we go with MB's analysis of McCain getting nomination and promising Huck a cabinet position, which one would it be? (I don't see McCain giving Huck VP, I'm sure he has someone else in mind he wants to reward unless he's strong-armed at convention.) I can think of two that would be perfect for Huck, that he has emphasized in his campaign: Dept. of Health & Human Services, or Dept. of Education. He has emphasized repeatedly (and I think this is one area that he is far and away right on and the only one clamoring about it) that this country must do more to become healthy and consider preventive steps to poor health, rather than just dealing with the consequences of poor health. Health care costs will become too much of a financial burden as people continue to live longer unless we do more to improve food, diet and exercise. Huck is a personal example of this and drives home this issue on his website. He has also been a very big supporter of education, so this would be a good one for him as well.

1/09/2008 12:00 PM

SheaHeyKid said...

BTW, further indications that we are in or headed for a recession (latest is from senior economist at Goldman) will only make life tougher for Repubs in November. The timing couldn't be worse, reminiscent of '92 election (although ironically once the revised numbers were released a quarter after the election it was clear that the recession had ended before the election).

Many Republican candidates continue to say economy is doing well, looking from a macroeconomic viewpoint, which unfortunately has little meaning to individual voters facing harsh microeconomic realities in states like MI. If we enter a recession, it removes even this macro talking point from Repubs.

Since the recession is likely to be short and weak, any candidate could reasonably promise to turn things around as soon as they enter office, and will likely be proven "true" just by the natural inertia of the economy and steps Fed will take this year. So, perhaps Mitt's based approach is to bang home his strength on economic policy, and promise to improve the status of all Americans.

1/09/2008 12:22 PM