The Occasional Observer

Always take this stuff with a grain of salt, but it's good grist for the mill (is that crossing metaphors?).  

For the full transcript, see the following link:

The Race 4 2012 Rumor Mill – GOP Convention Edition

It's worth noting that "the Eagle" has previously admitted to being part of the MN GOP establishment, which means his information is probably coming from T-Paw circles, and hence somewhat tilted in that direction. The only thing I would take away from this (assuming the whole thing is not some planted misdirection on behalf of the Mitt folks), is that Jindal and T-Paw are both under consideration. The fact that he takes Pawlenty as the favorite? We'll see.

No one took Portman. We could easily get punked on that one.

Fredo: McDonnell (July 1 or after)
ManBeast: McDonnell (June 30 or earlier)
D.C.: Field (6/20 or earlier)
Beetz: Field (8/5 or after)
Raekwon: Field (6/21-8/4)
Michelangelo: Rubio (7/17 or earlier)
Caribou: Rubio (7/18 or after)
SHK: Martinez

My veep selection is below the fold.  I was going to post it is a comment but it was too long and Blogger wouldn't allow it.  So click to see my choice below the fold.  Just make sure you read the post "Veepstakes '12", and make your choice first before reviewing mine...

OK, contributors, round 2 of Fredo's Mad Money. As in '08, it is the veepstakes. I have no idea how we played it back then, but I'm going to go with a new set of rules this time around.

WaPo has a list up of 10 potential GOP veeps. The 11th option will be the field.

-Each person gets 1 pick.
-Each person also gets 1 date, the date that Mitt and his veep make their first joint appearance as a ticket.

You win if you pick the right person. If multiple people choose the right person, the date is the tiebreak.  Winner gets a hearty handshake, attaboys, and also bought dinner by the losers at a time we can get everyone together.

Without further ado, here are your options (ranked in order of likelihood, per WaPo's estimation):

1. Marco Rubio (Sen, FL)
2. Bob McDonnell (Gov, VA)
3. Rob Portman (Sen, OH)
4. Bobby Jindal (Gov, LA)
5. Susanna Martinez (Gov, NM)
6. Chris Christie (Gov, NJ)
7. John Thune (Sen, SD)
8. Tim Pawlenty (Fmr Gov, MN)
9. Mitch Daniels (Gov, IN)
10. Paul Ryan (Rep, WI)
11. The Field (i.e., anyone else)

Please make your selection before clicking on "comment" so that you're not trying to game the people that were more timely than you in their replies.

OK, we're nearing the finish line in Iowa. Based on the contracts we chose, here are the scenarios needed for each contributor to win: Dark Commenteer: Romney wins in Iowa. Can't win if he doesn't.

Fredo: Romney wins in South Carolina, and someone other than Romney wins in Iowa.

ManBeast: Gingrich wins in South Carolina, and someone other than Romney wins in Iowa.

SHK: Wouldn't know winning if hit him in the face.

Here's my odds, based on current polling and momentum: D.C. 60% chance at the win, Fredo 25%, Beast 15%.

When Fredo has too much time on his hands, Fredo likes to watch Fredo use Excel.

While I'll spare you all 1000+ rows of potential EV/PV outcomes, and the resulting point totals, the bottom line goes something like this.

-SHK wins with most outcomes, including the most probable outcomes.

-Fredo wins if everything breaks McCain's way, and he ends up with 290 or more EV's (think "sweep" of swing states like FL, OH, PA, VA, MO, NV, and NM or CO).

-In a few unlikely outcomes, where McCain squeaks by with 273-285 EVs, yet runs up a PV majority over 50.5%, DC wins.

-MB looks like he's out of the running on this one.

This will be the last Mad Money Challenge of this election cycle, unless it isn't.

Just as a quick recap, ManBeast crushed all comers in part 1, by doubling (tripling, and quadrupling) down on McCain to take several primaries.

In part 2, D.C. tapped Palin as a high choice, and picked most of the shortlist, ensuring his win.

Now, we will move on to part 3: picking the outcome in the fall.

Each participant will make 2 calls:

1. McCain's share of the popular vote to tenths of a percent (e.g., 43.5%, 52.1%, etc.)

2. McCain's # of Electoral Votes (>269 required to win).

Scoring will go as follows: each participant starts with 200 points. They lose points depending on how far their predictions vary from actual results.

-For each 0.1% off in terms of popular vote, the participant loses 1 point. If you predict McCain to win 50.0% of the vote, and he actually tallies 58.0%, you would lose 80 points, and be down to 120. It doesn't matter whether your estimate is high or low, just how big it is.

-For each EV away from actual results, the participant loses 1 point. If you predict McCain to win 276 EV's, and he actually comes in with 326 EV's, you'd be down 50 points. Again, it is the magnitude of error, not direction, that matters (see below * for an important caveat).

Combine the two predictions to get the final result. In the example above, the participant would lose 80 points in part 1 and 50 points in part 2, leaving them with a final score of 70 points (200-130).

*However, if you do not pick the actual winner in the EV count, you lose an additional 25 points. For example, if you pick McCain to win the election with 270 EV's (to 268), and Obama wins 270-268, you only lose 2 points based on your EV total, but you get docked an additional 25 points for choosing the wrong winner. In the event of a 269-269 tie, everyone who didn't pick a tie loses the 25 points.

All predictions need to be in by Sunday night 9/7/08, at 11:59 PM. As with previous rounds, for it to be fun, try not to check the comments until after you've made your picks, so that your giving it your best guess and not trying to game the results.

Round 1: picking the pick

Dark Commenteer: 14 points
Fredo: 0 points
ManBeast: 0 points
SheaHeyKid: 0 points

Round 2: picking the short-listers (Pawlenty, Romney, Ridge, Lieberman, Palin)

DC: 42 (Palin 2, T-Paw 5, Romney 7, Ridge 8)
Fredo: 39 (Ridge 1, T-Paw 3, Romney 5)
MB: 33 (Romney 2, T-Paw 3, Ridge 11, Lieberman 15)
SHK: 27 (T-Paw 1, Romney 5, Lieberman 15)

I had Condi #2: if only I'd picked the right female!

Congrats to D.C., our resident political soothsayer and Mad Money Part II champion!

goes to Dark Commenteer, who had Palin #2 on his list.

No one else had her on there at all.

As for the second 1/2 of the crown, we'll wait and see once all of the shortlist is revealed. It might take a while for all the inner workings to come out, but I'm preliminarily guessing it looks something like:

Pawlenty
Romney
Lieberman
Ridge
Giuliani
Cantor (Field: not on original list)
Palin

If this list turned out to be right, I think D.C. would win the whole crown outright, but I only gave a quick scan. Developing...

OK Contributors, after MB's rousing success in the Mad Money Challenge, let's give it another shot here in round 2. It's time to play Veep Stakes!

Simply list your top 15 choices for who you think McCain will pick to be V.P., in order. (e.g. 1. Mitt, 2. Rudy, 3. Fred, etc...)

[IMPORTANT NOTE: WRITE DOWN YOUR CHOICES BEFORE CLICKING ON "COMMENTS", SO YOU DON'T SEE OTHER PEOPLE'S PICKS AND "GAME" YOUR CHOICES]

We'll crown 2 winners--first for the person who ranks the ultimate choice highest.

Then a co-champ for the person who gets the most people that ultimately land on McCain's short list. We'll award points in inverse order (15 points if your first choice gets on the short list, 14 points if your second choice gets on the short list, etc.)

It might take a while for the co-champ to be determined, because the short list won't come out until after the decision is made. Before hand there will be some blind speculation and targeted leaks, but not until a couple of weeks after the selection has been made will the dust have settled and we'll probably know who actually made the short list.

So with no further adieu, here are the possibles, and I've included anyone that I've heard any speculation about whatsoever. If you want someone who's not on this list, consider hims part of the "field" option.

Here's the long list of contenders, alphabetical by first name:

Bill Frist, Fmr Sen Maj Ldr (TN)
Bill Owens, Fmr Gov (CO)
Bob Riley, Gov (AL)
Bobby Jindal, Gov (LA)
Charlie Crist, Gov (FL)
Chris Cox, Chairman of the SEC
Condaleeza Rice, Sec of State
Duncan Hunter, Congressman (CA)
"Field" (anyone else)
Frank Keating, Fmr Gov (OK)
Fred Thompson, Fmr Sen (TN)
Haley Barbour, Gov (MS)
Jeb Bush, Fmr Gov (FL)
Jim DeMint, Sen (SC)
Jim Gilmore, Fmr Gov (VA)
Joe Lieberman, Sen (CT)
John Kasich, Fmr Congressman (OH)
John Thune, Sen (SD)
Kay Bailey Hutchison, Sen (TX)
Lindsey Graham, Sen (SC)
Mark Sanford, Gov (SC)
Michael Steele, Fmr Lt Gov (MD)
Mike Bloomberg, Mayor (NYC)
Mike Huckabee, Fmr Gov (AR)
Mike Pence, Congressman (IN)
Mitt Romney, Frm Gov (MA)
Newt Gingrich, Fmr Spkr of House
Paul Ryan, Consgressman (WI)
Richard Burr, Sen (NC)
Rob Portman, Director of OMB
Ron Paul, Congressman (TX)
Rudy Giuliani, Fmr Mayor (NYC)
Sam Brownback, Sen (KS)
Sarah Palin, Gov (AK)
Tim Pawlenty, Gov (MN)
Tom Coburn, Sen (OK)
Tom Ridge, Frmr Sec of Homeland Sec
Tommy Thompson, Fmr Gov (WI)

I'm going to go out on a limb and call April's PA primary for McCain. That means we can move to final results.

Congrats to Beasty for some superb picks. By getting 4 of 5 chosen contracts right, he not only won the most contracts (8), but had an amazing 80% of his contracts (excluding multiples) end in the money.

As a reult, today's word of the day, as taught to us by MB's picks: "autocorrelation"

Watch the master and learn.


FINAL RESULTS:


Fredo: Contracts 4, States 4, BA .444

MI- Mitt
CA- McCain
NJ- McCain
(PA- McCain)


Starving Econ Grad: Contracts 2, States 2, BA .167

MI- Mitt
(PA- McCain)


SHK: Contracts 1, States 1, BA .143

MI- Mitt


MB: Contracts 8, States 4, BA .800

MI- Mitt
FL- McCain (x2)
CA- McCain (x4)
(PA- McCain)


DC: A very handsome man

ManBeast 3
Starving Econ Grad 1
SHK 1
Fredo 1
DC 0

MB cashes in with his 2 contracts on McMentum in FL. The train has left the station on this one boys, with MB holding a McCain 4-spot up his sleeve on CA and another McCain contract as well (PA?).

So long as Johnny Mac manages to get through the debate tonight without falling asleep, or cutting & snorting lines on his podium, I think this one is all sewn up.

With three post NH primaries down, here's the standings. The first number is points earned. The second number in brackets represents the projected points if the current leaders in the RCP poll averages win the states they're leading in:

ManBeast 1 [8]
Fredo 1 [3]
Starving Econ Grad 1 [2]
SHK 1 [2]
D.C. 0 [2] - but still ridiculously sexy

Beasty off to a commanding lead on the strength of his quadrupling down on McCain CA and doubling down on McCain-FL. I only wish I'd thought of doubling down on contracts, but I guess that's what makes you engineering/computer/econ guys so smart.

Gratuitous movie quote:
"[Fredo] is intelligent, but not experienced. His pattern indicates two dimensional thinking."

After Mitt's win in MI here's the update:
Fredo, Starving Econ Grad, SheaHeyKid and Manbeast all get it correct.
D.C. - no bet - no win or loss.

So Fredo, what does this mean? One point per correct pick? Do you get 1:1 odds on your pick giving you more mad money to make more picks? Can you sells picks and buy others?

OK. You see the intrade contract prices from the previous post.

You get $250 to pick all the contracts you want. You can buy multiple contracts on the same primary, if you want.

If you ought the priciest contracts in each race, you'd be up to $415 or so in cost, so you're going to have to go for some value plays.

Best of luck, gentlemen! I'll go first in the comments, but I think it's best if you make your picks looking at mine, so we don't end up gaming each other picks. That would give the person who goes last an advantage over the person who goes first. Try to make your picks ASAP so the later pickers don't get the advantage of more info.

I'll provide an example below:

Joe Schmo could buy:

NJ-Giuliani 85
NJ McCain 14
NV-McCain 45
SC-Field 61
CA-Romney 15
MI-Field 30

$250 and he's tapped out.