The Occasional Observer

This will be the last Mad Money Challenge of this election cycle, unless it isn't.

Just as a quick recap, ManBeast crushed all comers in part 1, by doubling (tripling, and quadrupling) down on McCain to take several primaries.

In part 2, D.C. tapped Palin as a high choice, and picked most of the shortlist, ensuring his win.

Now, we will move on to part 3: picking the outcome in the fall.

Each participant will make 2 calls:

1. McCain's share of the popular vote to tenths of a percent (e.g., 43.5%, 52.1%, etc.)

2. McCain's # of Electoral Votes (>269 required to win).

Scoring will go as follows: each participant starts with 200 points. They lose points depending on how far their predictions vary from actual results.

-For each 0.1% off in terms of popular vote, the participant loses 1 point. If you predict McCain to win 50.0% of the vote, and he actually tallies 58.0%, you would lose 80 points, and be down to 120. It doesn't matter whether your estimate is high or low, just how big it is.

-For each EV away from actual results, the participant loses 1 point. If you predict McCain to win 276 EV's, and he actually comes in with 326 EV's, you'd be down 50 points. Again, it is the magnitude of error, not direction, that matters (see below * for an important caveat).

Combine the two predictions to get the final result. In the example above, the participant would lose 80 points in part 1 and 50 points in part 2, leaving them with a final score of 70 points (200-130).

*However, if you do not pick the actual winner in the EV count, you lose an additional 25 points. For example, if you pick McCain to win the election with 270 EV's (to 268), and Obama wins 270-268, you only lose 2 points based on your EV total, but you get docked an additional 25 points for choosing the wrong winner. In the event of a 269-269 tie, everyone who didn't pick a tie loses the 25 points.

All predictions need to be in by Sunday night 9/7/08, at 11:59 PM. As with previous rounds, for it to be fun, try not to check the comments until after you've made your picks, so that your giving it your best guess and not trying to game the results.