Sunday, September 07, 2008
Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll: All tied up
The conventions have cancelled themselves out, to this point. Can the GOP expect to get any further bounce out of the RNC?
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2 comments:
Gallup now has McCain ahead of Obama, 48-45. As expected, McCain is now even or ahead of Obama after RNC. This is big, IMO. Both campaigns admitted that one of the few remaining areas they had for bounce was VP selection, and McCain wins this hands down. I believe Palin will give a bigger and more consistent boost than Biden.
That Obama is not ahead by 10 points now is really, really bad news for Dems. Assuming no major screw-ups for McCain/Palin in the debates or other press, I think they have better than even odds to win now. I think Repubs still outnumber Dems among actual voters who will show up, and now that the Palin pick has all but guaranteed huge base turnout McCain could lock it up.
What's great is that the Dems knew from day 1 the Palin pick was their worst nightmare. They tried to derail it with claims that it "reeked of desperation" and was a "Hail Mary pass", when in reality they knew it was anything but. It was in fact the most savvy strategic decision I've seen from a campaign in a long time, perhaps in my lifetime. By picking Palin he scores big in at least 3 crucial areas: (1) buzz associated with first possible woman VP, especially on the heels of Hillary failure in DNC; (2) solid conservative creds to create base enthusiasm for McCain's campaign for the first time; and (3) reinforce McCain's position that the Republican ticket is the true one for change and reform.
Zogby also has McCain/Palin up 4 points to Obama/Biden.