The Occasional Observer

Always take this stuff with a grain of salt, but it's good grist for the mill (is that crossing metaphors?).  

For the full transcript, see the following link:

The Race 4 2012 Rumor Mill – GOP Convention Edition

It's worth noting that "the Eagle" has previously admitted to being part of the MN GOP establishment, which means his information is probably coming from T-Paw circles, and hence somewhat tilted in that direction. The only thing I would take away from this (assuming the whole thing is not some planted misdirection on behalf of the Mitt folks), is that Jindal and T-Paw are both under consideration. The fact that he takes Pawlenty as the favorite? We'll see.

For those who clicked on the last link I offered to Race 4 '12 and the "inside information" being blogged there, you probably saw the blogger's contact is code-named "The Eagle."   Well, the Eagle allowed for an interview, subject to a bunch of his own rule, and offered up some more juicy tidbits.  The short version is that, in his opinion, the shortlist will be down to 3 names in the near future, and those names will be Portman, Jindal, and Pawlenty.  But the whole interview is worth a read and available below the fold.

Per an alleged insider who leaks to a "front page poster" at Race 4 2012, the veep list has been narrowed to 7 and the "door is now shut" on further possibles.  Additionally, the insider states they have now moved to phase 2 of the vet--the interviews.  Here's the list, if it is to be believed:

• Senator of Florida – Marco Rubio
• Senator of Ohio – Rob Portman
• Senator of New Hampshire – Kelly Ayotte
• Governor of New Jersey – Chris Christie
• Governor of Minnesota – Tim Pawlenty
• House of Representative of Washington State – Cathy McMorris Rodgers
• Governor of Louisiana – Bobby Jindal

If this is the list, I'd be surprised if Ayotte, Christie, or Rodgers get the pick (though either Ayotte or Rodgers will "allegedly" make the final cut for appearances).  Any of the others seem possible.

If we were veepstaking today, I'd probably have Portman as my most likely, followed closely by Jindal, Rubio,  and T-Paw.

No one took Portman. We could easily get punked on that one.

Fredo: McDonnell (July 1 or after)
ManBeast: McDonnell (June 30 or earlier)
D.C.: Field (6/20 or earlier)
Beetz: Field (8/5 or after)
Raekwon: Field (6/21-8/4)
Michelangelo: Rubio (7/17 or earlier)
Caribou: Rubio (7/18 or after)
SHK: Martinez

My veep selection is below the fold.  I was going to post it is a comment but it was too long and Blogger wouldn't allow it.  So click to see my choice below the fold.  Just make sure you read the post "Veepstakes '12", and make your choice first before reviewing mine...

OK, contributors, round 2 of Fredo's Mad Money. As in '08, it is the veepstakes. I have no idea how we played it back then, but I'm going to go with a new set of rules this time around.

WaPo has a list up of 10 potential GOP veeps. The 11th option will be the field.

-Each person gets 1 pick.
-Each person also gets 1 date, the date that Mitt and his veep make their first joint appearance as a ticket.

You win if you pick the right person. If multiple people choose the right person, the date is the tiebreak.  Winner gets a hearty handshake, attaboys, and also bought dinner by the losers at a time we can get everyone together.

Without further ado, here are your options (ranked in order of likelihood, per WaPo's estimation):

1. Marco Rubio (Sen, FL)
2. Bob McDonnell (Gov, VA)
3. Rob Portman (Sen, OH)
4. Bobby Jindal (Gov, LA)
5. Susanna Martinez (Gov, NM)
6. Chris Christie (Gov, NJ)
7. John Thune (Sen, SD)
8. Tim Pawlenty (Fmr Gov, MN)
9. Mitch Daniels (Gov, IN)
10. Paul Ryan (Rep, WI)
11. The Field (i.e., anyone else)

Please make your selection before clicking on "comment" so that you're not trying to game the people that were more timely than you in their replies.

Round 1: picking the pick

Dark Commenteer: 14 points
Fredo: 0 points
ManBeast: 0 points
SheaHeyKid: 0 points

Round 2: picking the short-listers (Pawlenty, Romney, Ridge, Lieberman, Palin)

DC: 42 (Palin 2, T-Paw 5, Romney 7, Ridge 8)
Fredo: 39 (Ridge 1, T-Paw 3, Romney 5)
MB: 33 (Romney 2, T-Paw 3, Ridge 11, Lieberman 15)
SHK: 27 (T-Paw 1, Romney 5, Lieberman 15)

I had Condi #2: if only I'd picked the right female!

Congrats to D.C., our resident political soothsayer and Mad Money Part II champion!

goes to Dark Commenteer, who had Palin #2 on his list.

No one else had her on there at all.

As for the second 1/2 of the crown, we'll wait and see once all of the shortlist is revealed. It might take a while for all the inner workings to come out, but I'm preliminarily guessing it looks something like:

Pawlenty
Romney
Lieberman
Ridge
Giuliani
Cantor (Field: not on original list)
Palin

If this list turned out to be right, I think D.C. would win the whole crown outright, but I only gave a quick scan. Developing...

All the cable news networks are now confirming Sarah Palin will be McCain's V.P.!

D.C.: Rejoice!

Appears Pawlenty is out, since he won't be in Dayton today. On the other hand, both Palin and Romney supposedly are or will be, so it could be them. Also, secret service supposedly scoped out Romney's sister's house in MI yesterday, leading to speculation it could be him.

CNN guessed this late last night, since a lot of activity was seen at his house (police cruiser with his family showed up late). I'm surprised Obama's campaign made the official announcement on a Saturday morning, but I'm sure they had a reason for burying this story.

Biden announcement gives Obama a few things. First, it gives him someone who supposedly will eliminate any claims that his ticket is too naive on foreign policy. Second, it gives Obama someone who supported him early after dropping out of race. Finally, as I suggested a few days ago, it gives him a real pit bull to attack McCain, while Obama can keep his hands clean. One thing is for sure: as Obama's #s continue to tank and the stakes grow, this race will go increasingly negative. Expect attacks from both sides to greatly accelerate going forward.

I'm feeling fairly vindicated for a change. I have believed right along that there was zero chance of Hill being veep, and it's now being confirmed that she didn't even make the short list. I said on Monday I thought that Kaine was Obama's first choice, I'm sticking to that. Despite the fact that Biden has led the buzz, and Chet Edward's is the flavor du jour, I'm guessing it's Kaine standing next to Obama on the podium tomorrow.

HE NEVER EVEN VETTED HER

New rumors swirling that McCain's VP pick will be Ridge, or perhaps Lieberman. Now, it is abundantly clear that if it were totally up to McCain, those would be the two possible choices for VP. But fortunately it's not totally up to McCain, and so neither of those guys will be the VP.

So why the rumors? I think a bit of strategizing by McCain campaign. If we look at any of the other possible VP picks, each has a group of critics within the base. Romney, Pawlenty, Jindal, Huck, etc. are not 100% supported by the base, each has their critics. One great way to get 100% support from the base no matter who you pick is to first scare the base into thinking you might go as liberal as Ridge or Lieberman. Once they are in a frenzied panic that either of those guys might actually be the pick, they will be so relieved when you finally announce the real pick that they'll provide full throttle support to whoever it is. I think it's a guaranteed way to get a surge from the base once McCain announces his true pick. It also keeps him in favor with Indies or Dems who might vote for him, knowing that he is "considering" Ridge and Lieberman.

Of course, there is always the chance that McCain actually picks Ridge or Lieberman and tanks this thing faster than the Mets with 17 games left in a season (sorry, wrong blog), but I'm not even allowing myself to consider that possibility.

Recent state polling from Survey USA and Rasmussen have MN back to around the margin or error. This after it looked like it would be double-digit race a month ago.

This surely helps the rationale for a Pawlenty pick.

Two interesting pieces of news this morning:

1. Remember how on Saturday we learned definitively that McCain wasn't picking a pro-choice veep? It's not seeming so definitive now. Re-enter Ridge & Lieberman. And I'm sick of being head-faked and double-head-faked. McCain gets me in the air more easily than Jordan did Charles Smith.

2. Obama has apprarently made his pick and the announcement may come within the next 24 hours.

As you know by now, believe nothing you read. Everyone lies and the liars can't even figure out if there spinning the truth or spinning a lie.

That said, just for the sakes of good ole' fun, a quick scan of the web will show you that the primary names getting bandied about right now are Joe Biden, Evan Bayh, and Tim Kaine.

Biden is the most "do no harm" pick from a bio standpoint: he's got decades of experience, brings foreign policy bona fides, and is a straight down-the-line liberal that the Dem base can't really argue with. He's also a white working-class regular-Joe sounding guy with roots in Scranton, PA, who might be able to reach out to disaffected Clintonites.

Biden may be the only Dem out there who could challenge McCain on his foreign policy judgment and sound credible.

While his bio makes him a do no harm pick, his history of jamming his foot down his throat makes him a potentially dangerous pick. What was he running for President for 2 days this year before his first big gaffe, "cleangate"?

Bayh is an uninspiring, ideologically unmoored (a true DLC/Clintonite triangulator) Senator (and former Governor) from Indiana, a traditionally GOP state that is in play this year. He's widely admired in IN and might be able to help O carry the state. He is likely to shore-up the perception that Obama wants to run a "moderate" administration (this is total B.S. of course, but that's how it will get reported). Bayh is not loved by the far left (since he has to pretend he's moderate to get elected in IN) and would be unlikely to sway too many voters with his stump speech. The guy's milquetoast all the way. He also has been in D.C. a while (2nd or 3rd term as Senator, IIRC), and helps undercut the "Change" mantra. I'm hoping Obama goes in this direction.

Tim Kaine is the most high risk/high reward pick out there. Picking him would show that Obama is not worried about polls, not worried that people are unsure if he's ready to be CIC, and confident that he doesn't need a big brother like Biden to help him through. Kaine, like Obama, is a fresh face. He's never been in D.C., and is only part-way through his first term as governor of VA. But he's got his stump speech about his accomplishments down, and he's a good surrogate, much better than I thought as I've watched his recent on-camera performances. He brings a white southern male onto the ticket, which has always been a necessary component for a Dem to win the white house (every single winning Dem ticket since JFK has had a white southerner on there). He fits the "change" mantra.

However, he has no foreign policy experience, an area where Obama's already weak. He has a short (and possibly thin, depending on who you ask) record as governor. And he's only the second most popular Dem in his own state, with soon-to-be Senator Mark Warner number 1.

Basically, I'm guessing that Obama wants to pick Kaine, but if he feels like he needs a little more cover, he'll fall back on Biden or Bayh. Bayh's the weaker choice, but unlikely to upset the apple cart by saying something stupid.

and I knew I would be making my V.P. selection this week, I think I'd want to push up my timetable. I could drown out the media echo chamber about how McCain mopped the floor with me at Saddleback on Saturday and get the chattering classes chattering about my pick.

Assuming John King can read his emails correctly, it looks like Lieberman and Ridge are officially out of the veepwatch.

This would leave Romney and Pawlenty as the front runners, with Cantor in the mix, and the same old dark horses (Palin, Thune).

is more or less the high priest of print conservatism.

So when Lowry says he's taking the idea of a Lieberman veep selection seriously, I'm gonna do so as well.

In other veep news:

-The DNC is launching a major ad-hit on Romney. They still think Mitt's in the running.

-T-Paw continues to be considered one of the favorites

-Cantor was confirmed as being vetted, but any news around him as a possibility has died down over the past few days.

-Lieberman and Ridge are very much front runners: both have close personal ties with McCain, and Mac's respect.

-Jindal & Palin seem not to be under consideration (sorry DC).

-Rudy is out (based on the fact he's speaking at the convention in a time slot other than the v.p.'s slot)

-if there are dark horses out there, e.g. Thune, Kasich, Lindsey Graham, Fred Smith, etc., no-one with the scoop is talking. So chances are, there are no dark horses, since no one in Washington can keep their yap shut.

I'm going to go way out on a thin limb. Lieberman will be McCain's VP. Here's how it helps -

1. Explicit proof of working across the aisle
2. Further distance from Bush
3. Big help with independents and anti-Obama or pro-Hillary Dems
4. Lots and lots of press
5. Backs-up the maverick claim

Ok. Now you can all go ahead and tear this up. But remember I said it if it happens.