The Occasional Observer

Two interesting pieces of news this morning:

1. Remember how on Saturday we learned definitively that McCain wasn't picking a pro-choice veep? It's not seeming so definitive now. Re-enter Ridge & Lieberman. And I'm sick of being head-faked and double-head-faked. McCain gets me in the air more easily than Jordan did Charles Smith.

2. Obama has apprarently made his pick and the announcement may come within the next 24 hours.

As you know by now, believe nothing you read. Everyone lies and the liars can't even figure out if there spinning the truth or spinning a lie.

That said, just for the sakes of good ole' fun, a quick scan of the web will show you that the primary names getting bandied about right now are Joe Biden, Evan Bayh, and Tim Kaine.

Biden is the most "do no harm" pick from a bio standpoint: he's got decades of experience, brings foreign policy bona fides, and is a straight down-the-line liberal that the Dem base can't really argue with. He's also a white working-class regular-Joe sounding guy with roots in Scranton, PA, who might be able to reach out to disaffected Clintonites.

Biden may be the only Dem out there who could challenge McCain on his foreign policy judgment and sound credible.

While his bio makes him a do no harm pick, his history of jamming his foot down his throat makes him a potentially dangerous pick. What was he running for President for 2 days this year before his first big gaffe, "cleangate"?

Bayh is an uninspiring, ideologically unmoored (a true DLC/Clintonite triangulator) Senator (and former Governor) from Indiana, a traditionally GOP state that is in play this year. He's widely admired in IN and might be able to help O carry the state. He is likely to shore-up the perception that Obama wants to run a "moderate" administration (this is total B.S. of course, but that's how it will get reported). Bayh is not loved by the far left (since he has to pretend he's moderate to get elected in IN) and would be unlikely to sway too many voters with his stump speech. The guy's milquetoast all the way. He also has been in D.C. a while (2nd or 3rd term as Senator, IIRC), and helps undercut the "Change" mantra. I'm hoping Obama goes in this direction.

Tim Kaine is the most high risk/high reward pick out there. Picking him would show that Obama is not worried about polls, not worried that people are unsure if he's ready to be CIC, and confident that he doesn't need a big brother like Biden to help him through. Kaine, like Obama, is a fresh face. He's never been in D.C., and is only part-way through his first term as governor of VA. But he's got his stump speech about his accomplishments down, and he's a good surrogate, much better than I thought as I've watched his recent on-camera performances. He brings a white southern male onto the ticket, which has always been a necessary component for a Dem to win the white house (every single winning Dem ticket since JFK has had a white southerner on there). He fits the "change" mantra.

However, he has no foreign policy experience, an area where Obama's already weak. He has a short (and possibly thin, depending on who you ask) record as governor. And he's only the second most popular Dem in his own state, with soon-to-be Senator Mark Warner number 1.

Basically, I'm guessing that Obama wants to pick Kaine, but if he feels like he needs a little more cover, he'll fall back on Biden or Bayh. Bayh's the weaker choice, but unlikely to upset the apple cart by saying something stupid.