Monday, August 11, 2008
Ossetian War: Choose Your Own Adventure
You are President of the United States.
Russia, one of the worlds largest oil producing states, and the only possesors of a nuclear arsenal equal to our own, have used an internal Georgian struggle as pretense for an invasion of their former colony. Two major oil pipleines run through Georgia, and Russia has already targeted one for destruction via airstrikes, but failed.
The Russian are now widening their attack, including using their Black Sea fleet, stationed in the Ukraine, to shell Georgian coastal cities and military positions. The use of the Black Sea fleet threatens to draw Ukraine into the conflict, as the governmnet in Kiev feels Russia's aggressive actions have violated their treaty with Ukraine that allows for the Russian fleet to be stationed in a Ukrainian port.
Additionally, the Russians have signaled their intent to widen the conflict within Georgia. Since the initial invasion brought no substantive resistance from the West, they are now threatening to invade a second Georgian province. Will it stop there? Or will they simply engulph Georgia yet again? And what about Ukraine? Azerbaijian? Or any other former Soviet republic not protected by Nato membership?
Merely 4 months ago, you led a US delegation in pushing Georgia for NATO membership, but were rebuked by France, Germany, and other NATO partners, who were worried about the Russian response should Georgia be offered membership. Georgia was, however, told that they would eventually be offered membership. This middle-ground was supposed to assuage the Kremlin, but apparently it only served notice that Russia would have to move quickly if it was to reassert its control over Georgia, else their former province would be lost to NATO forever.
You have strongly condemned the attack, and called for other democracies to do the same. But what next? What steps to take? Do you risk further alienating Russia, by coordinating a joint military response? Could such an endeavor succeed? What are the possible domino effects, militarily and economically? Even if such a military effort succeeded, and led to a liberation of Georgia with NATO membership, would "success" leave Russia feeling so isolated that it would drive them towards a strategic allinace with China?
Conversely, by doing nothing, would Russia and China get the message that they have carte blanche within their respective "spheres of influence" to conquer, oppress, and annex?
Your move, Mr. President.
Russia, one of the worlds largest oil producing states, and the only possesors of a nuclear arsenal equal to our own, have used an internal Georgian struggle as pretense for an invasion of their former colony. Two major oil pipleines run through Georgia, and Russia has already targeted one for destruction via airstrikes, but failed.
The Russian are now widening their attack, including using their Black Sea fleet, stationed in the Ukraine, to shell Georgian coastal cities and military positions. The use of the Black Sea fleet threatens to draw Ukraine into the conflict, as the governmnet in Kiev feels Russia's aggressive actions have violated their treaty with Ukraine that allows for the Russian fleet to be stationed in a Ukrainian port.
Additionally, the Russians have signaled their intent to widen the conflict within Georgia. Since the initial invasion brought no substantive resistance from the West, they are now threatening to invade a second Georgian province. Will it stop there? Or will they simply engulph Georgia yet again? And what about Ukraine? Azerbaijian? Or any other former Soviet republic not protected by Nato membership?
Merely 4 months ago, you led a US delegation in pushing Georgia for NATO membership, but were rebuked by France, Germany, and other NATO partners, who were worried about the Russian response should Georgia be offered membership. Georgia was, however, told that they would eventually be offered membership. This middle-ground was supposed to assuage the Kremlin, but apparently it only served notice that Russia would have to move quickly if it was to reassert its control over Georgia, else their former province would be lost to NATO forever.
You have strongly condemned the attack, and called for other democracies to do the same. But what next? What steps to take? Do you risk further alienating Russia, by coordinating a joint military response? Could such an endeavor succeed? What are the possible domino effects, militarily and economically? Even if such a military effort succeeded, and led to a liberation of Georgia with NATO membership, would "success" leave Russia feeling so isolated that it would drive them towards a strategic allinace with China?
Conversely, by doing nothing, would Russia and China get the message that they have carte blanche within their respective "spheres of influence" to conquer, oppress, and annex?
Your move, Mr. President.
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Always sniffing for the truth
2 comments:
FWIW, my first move would be to hit the ranch in Crawford and get in a few days of quail hunting.
But that's just me.
OK. Having spent some time thinking about this issue, I'm more clear about what to expect out of Russia. We're still light on options--but we still have one go to move: the U.S. Air Force.
My guess is that Russia is not going to stop its offensive until it replaces the Georgian government with a puppet regime.
Our time frame to stop this from happening is probably marked in days, not weeks.
Which means we pretty much need to go the mat immediately. Going to the mat is going to mean giving the Russians a face-saving out that incentivizes them to stop their assault, while buying us time to incorporate Georgia into NATO.
Step 1: tell Russia that any further advances will necessitate a military response from NATO. We will incorporate Ukraine into NATO immediately and militarize the expanse of the Ukraine/Russian border lest they cease hostilities. We further would consider offering air support, or even ground support to Georgian forces, if they persist. Richard Holbrooke shut the f up.
This is looking Putin in the eye and seeing if he blinks, just like JFK did with Kruschev. I'm confident Putin will blink: why would he risk taking heavy casualties to US air forces when he could get a nominal victory without bloodshed? The nominal victory would mean we tell Georgia they need to part with Ossetia.
Step 2: Once hostilities cease, we immediately grant Georgia full NATO membership, solidifying the situation and compensating Georgia for the loss of territory (territory they didn't fully control, FWIW--it's probably a trade off they'd be willing to make under better circumstances).
My instincts in this circumstances would lead the U.S. and NATO to the brink of World War, so I can't say it's a course free from risk. But anything short of the threat of military force (behind closed doors) coupled with a diplomatic stance that Russia was "right" to seek the "liberation" of Ossetia probably doesn't get it done.