The Occasional Observer

When Fredo has too much time on his hands, Fredo likes to watch Fredo use Excel.

While I'll spare you all 1000+ rows of potential EV/PV outcomes, and the resulting point totals, the bottom line goes something like this.

-SHK wins with most outcomes, including the most probable outcomes.

-Fredo wins if everything breaks McCain's way, and he ends up with 290 or more EV's (think "sweep" of swing states like FL, OH, PA, VA, MO, NV, and NM or CO).

-In a few unlikely outcomes, where McCain squeaks by with 273-285 EVs, yet runs up a PV majority over 50.5%, DC wins.

-MB looks like he's out of the running on this one.