The Occasional Observer

Dems currently have 51 seats (including 2 independents that caucus Dem), and need 9 for a filibuster proof majority. In reality a pick up of 7 gives them a filibuster proof majority on most issues, since they can count on a few weak republicans to defect on any difficult issue.

According to RCP poll averages, Dems are currently leading in 8 races that would be takeaways from the GOP. They are:

Virginia - M Warner over Gilmore +27% (John Warner retiring)
New Mexico - Udall over Pearce +17.6% (Pete Domenici retiring)
Colorado - Udall over Schaffer +9.3% (Wayne Allard retiring)
New Hampshire - Shaheen over Sununu (inc) +5.9%
Oregon - Merkley over Smith (inc) +3.7%
North Carolina - Hagan over Dole (inc) +2.7%
Minnesota - Franken over Coleman (inc) +2.2%
Alaska - Begich over Stevens (inc) +0.6%

Additionally, the Dem challenger is within 3 points of a GOP incumbent in 3 states:

Kentucky (McConnell)
Mississippi (Wicker)
Georgia (Chambliss)

Happy Wednesday!