The Occasional Observer

Sen. Webb made a stunning entry on the national scene with his response to the SOTU tonight. He looked comfortable, was in command of his delivery, and had a sharp focus that the SOTU (partly b/c of the nature of the speech) lacked. He zeroed in on two issues: class disparity and Iraq. Sen. Webb's grievances about Iraq have been well documented. The members of this blog have spilled many pixels discussing the relative merits of the Bush doctrine and a Mideast policy grounded in realism. I'll pass on re-hashing that discussion here.

But on the issue of economic populism, Webb hit a home run. He discussed the disparity in perception of the economy: Wall Street types trumpeting all-time highs on the Dow and Goldilocks GDP numbers; while main street America confronts spiraling health care and education costs, and the loss of manufacturing and other blue collar employment to foreign workers. These are real issues confronting the majority of American votes, and I haven't heard them addressed in a systematic way by any GOP candidate save Duncan Hunter. Given that it's unlikely Mr. Hunter is winning the nomination, the GOP is likely to have a candidate whose answer to lopsided trade policy is to simply ignore it and cling to free-trade rhetoric. The GOP response to spiraling health care costs will probably be more consumer choice and a reduction in the reliance on 3rd party payers. I don't think most Americans will be comfortable with these solutions (while the importance of HSA's and market reform w/r/t health care is, to me, a compelling argument).

I really hope that the prospective GOP candidates pay close attention to Sen. Webb's speech. Regardless of who takes the Dem nomination, they'll be hammering Iraq and populist economic themes in 2008. If Iraq is not a winning proposition by that time, and the GOP does not have a popular plan to protect middle class job security and purchasing power, I have a sneaking suspicion we're going to get stung. While it might not have received Milton Friedman's imprimatur, economic populism may be the only thing that can save the White House for Republicans in 2008.