The Occasional Observer

I posted this in a comment over at R 4 2008. My current evaluation of the state of the race.

1. Mayor Giuliani: With his sizeable lead, how could he not be number 1 right now?

2. Gov. Romney: With McCain’s backwards momentum, the negative media attention on his age and “tired look”, and his poor fundraising results, I believe Mitt has leapfrogged into the #2 slot. As the media focus tightens, Mitt will continue to benefit from his smooth delivery and strong articulation of solid conservative ideas (the ideas are solid, even if you think he’s an opportunist). Especially on the hot-button issues, Mitt’s stances will appeal more broadly to conservatives than McCain or Giuliani: on abortion, defense of marriage, and illegal immigration. Unlike some of the true SoCons, Mitt’s focus on economic and tax policy, and his background as a coporate CEO, will keep him from being pigeonholed as an “extremist”. The Mormon issue will have run its course long before Iowa rolls around.

3. Sen. McCain: Could have dropped much further, but has rescued his candidacy with strong performances on the stump recently, and some good press coverage as well. Whether he can win this thing will have to do with (1) whether skeptical conservatives really believe that he’ll nominate a true originalist pro-life judge to the S.C., when he’s been very willing to backstab conservatives (e.g., Kennedy-McCain, McCain-Feingold, opposing Bush tax cuts, etc.) to avoid being seen as an “extremist” or by the MSM and losing the appearance of the “conservative that liberals can like”; and (2) how things go in Iraq. If the situation turns around rapidly in Iraq (I’m holding out hope), McCain quickly catapults back to #1 on the list for his steadfast leadership in the area.

4. Sen. Thompson: Polling great, but needs to prove that there is actually a pro-Thompson groundswell and not an anti-Rudy McRomney groundswell. I’m not convinced this candidacy is going anywhere, especially since he (1) has cancer, (2) has no executive or private-sector leadership experience that I’m aware of, and (3) is not as conservative as everyone wants to believe. His lifetime ACU rating is not markedly better than McCain’s (86 vs. 82), and much worse than the other CCA’s like Brownback (94) (hat tip: Caucus Cooler) which kind of defeats the whole raison d’etre of his candidacy. Also didn’t distinguish himself as a leader in the Senate Caucus and didn’t have a lot of fire for the fight, leaving politics after 1 & 1/3 terms. Seems to have a lot of down-home appeal and that Southern accent convinces a lot of folks he’s a real conservative, but more viable than some of the other conservatives, so I guess we’ll see. He could go anywhere from here: winning the nomination to never entering the race seems possible.

5. Spkr. Gingrich: The personal negatives simply can’t be overcome (IMHO) in the general election. The most innovative policy thinker in the field and his conservative bona fides can’t be questioned. Will have his staunch backers if he enters without a doubt.

6. Sen. Brownback: Should be doing much better, but his 1Q fundraising was adequate to keep him in the race. With his down the line solid conservative views (exception on immigration policy), and midwestern roots, he should be cleaning up right now in IA. His lack of personal appeal and flat presence on the stump seems to be the problem, IMHO.

7. Gov. Huckabee: Similar to Brownback except his mixed track record on taxes puts him at a disadvantage to the KS senator in terms of his history. However, a much more effective stumper. If Huckabee starts getting some momentum he could be a dangerous candidate as a CCA.

8. Rep. Hunter: Ahead of some of the names below him only because he seems to get pockets of enthusiastic support in the areas where he campaigns. Surprisingly strong showings in straw polls in SC and AZ show he can’t be counted out before the debates. A few strong performances and he might find some financial backing.

9. Gov. Thompson: This one is the real head scratcher. For a conservative governor who had so much appeal in his homestate, and so many real accomplishments from a policy perspective, he doesn’t seem to be gaining any traction among voters or donors. I know it’s a matter of subjective preference, but for someone who is not a lightweight, he sure sounds like one on TV.

10. Rep. Tancredo: Johnny-one note on an issue where a lot of folks want a Johnny one-note. Will have a core of supporters. Easily pigeon-holed as a racist white guy by the MSM, so he will find it difficult to broaden his support much.

11. Sen. Hagel: Unless Republican voters make the wholesale choice that they would prefer to return to an Eisenhower-style foreign policy and renounce the Bush doctrine, Hagel’s going nowhere. I don’t see it happening. The fact that his dissents from Bush were angry and undiplomatic don’t help him any.

12. Gov. Gilmore: Many conservatives in his homestate feel he was only a marginal governor. That’s a tough track record to run on when you’re from a red state like VA.

13. Ron Paul/John Cox/Other: Please leave the stage and stop taking up debating time from candidates we’d actually like to hear from.