The Occasional Observer

A quick look at the current RCP average in GOP field indicates roughly that Rudy = 32%, McCain = 20%, and you have 3 guys (Mitt, Newt, and Thompson) hovering around 10% each. Looking at these #s, I think things can break well for Mitt as follows. First, Newt will not run. Second, Thompson will not gain much traction, and I'm not sure he'll raise enough money to mount a legit campaign, so I expect him to bow out at some point. That leaves ~20% of voters up for grabs. I doubt any of those votes go to Rudy or McCain - those two are well-enough-known commodities that anyone who is going to support them is already reflected in their 32% and 20%, respectively. Which means Mitt's job is to make sure he mops up that 20%, and doesn't let them turn into non-voters.