The Occasional Observer

4 comments:

ManBeast said...

I'll tone down my optimism (while still being optimistic) and update my picks to b and b. The GOP will lose seats, but still hold control of both houses. I think there are a lot of Republicans annoyed by the media's coverage of the campaigns and will vote out of spite. The Democrats are trying to use the assumptive close. I hoping to see more of that crushing disappointment in the MSM in a couple of weeks.

10/27/2006 12:40 PM

SheaHeyKid said...

Great call on assumptive close. I liked Bush telling Pelosi to slow down on measuring the drapes!

10/27/2006 2:15 PM

Fredo said...

Boy has CNN really moved into full out campaign mode. "Broken Government" segments. "Broken borders" segments. Castigating Lynne Cheney about fiction she wrote 20 years ago. Wolf Blitzer using the interrogative as commentary: "are dirty campaign ads an indication that Repubicans are turning desperate?" And on that topic, it would be so much harder for Republicans to run negative ads if Democratic candidates weren't such sleaze-bags. Hey Harold Ford, put down the playboy bunny.

Anyway, as for revisiting picks, I went seat by seat through the contested House races, and by my count the GOP is down 17 seats right now. But so many races are at the tipping point, that it could easily be anywhere from -10 to -25.

Same story in the Senate. Things are looking better for Burns in MT, and Corker and Talent seem to be slightly ahead. Steele even seems to have drawn even in MD. The only sure losses for the GOP right now are RI, PA and OH, and NJ and MD are possible pickups. On the flip side, we could easily still lose the 6 seats I highlighted earlier, plus VA, now that Allen's campaign has self destructed. It's almost like Allen's trapped in a car that was driven into the water, waiting and gasping from the last pocket of air, desperately hoping that the driver has sought help to save him. Oh wait, that was something else.

The odds-on money would probably go to SHK's initial prediction right now, Dems taking the House and the GOP holding the Senate. But the GOP could easily hold both or lose both, with just a slight change in the prevailing political winds.

If I were to disown my earlier predictions, I'd probably go with Beast's point about Dem triumphalism--it really is annoying--and go with the GOP holding both houses. Although with razor thin majorities.

Unfortunately, since I'm always right, endorsing a result that I had previously ruled out would create a metaphysical impossibility. The space-time continuum would rip into shreds. So I'll stick with my original call.

10/27/2006 11:45 PM

ManBeast said...

Here's a good article on RCP about how inaccurate polls are and how easy they are to manipulate.

10/30/2006 9:37 AM