Tuesday, December 11, 2007
All the twists and turns of riding the Scrambler while drinking
1)
Drudge screams he has an exclusive: Huckabee is the Dems dream candidate. "Top Dems" have put out the word not to damage Huck in the hope he'll get the GOP nod, since they think he has a glass chin and will be easily KO'd in the general:
B)
RCP links to a coincidentally timed Jim Pinkerton column, stating that Huck's faith will be a help, not a hinderance, in this election cycle.:
III:
RCP asks, "Whose behind the Drudge attack on Huck?"
d:
RCP's whodunnit story links to GreenMountainPolitics, who points out that this story is Team Mitt hitting the "panic button" and that Drudge has a dog in the fight (Romney), and is willingly participating in the Romney campaign's shenanigans. The post concludes with this update: "Turns out the DNC doesn't have any idea what Team RomDrudge is talking about."
In conclusion:
What's actually going on here?
1. There is an extremely devious bunch of Dem operatives over at the DNC that don't want to face Huck. As a result, they want GOP voters to think they do want to face Huck, and are leaking this story to scare off undecided GOP primary voters.
2. Mitt (or some other rival campaign) is leaking a fraudulent story in hopes of slowing Huck's ascent.
3. The Dems are extremely sloppy, and someone let leak that they're hoping for a Huck win.
What's definitely NOT going on here?
The Dems have a strategy to help Huck win the GOP nod, and have decided to announce it to the world by having upper level DNC officials leak it to the guy with the widest readership of any politically-oriented blog.
Drudge screams he has an exclusive: Huckabee is the Dems dream candidate. "Top Dems" have put out the word not to damage Huck in the hope he'll get the GOP nod, since they think he has a glass chin and will be easily KO'd in the general:
"He'll easily be their McGovern, an easy kill," mocked one senior Democrat operative Tuesday morning from Washington.
"His letting out murderers because they shout 'Jesus', his wanting to put 300,000 AIDS patients and Magic Johnson into isolation, ain't even scratching the surface of what we've got on him."
B)
RCP links to a coincidentally timed Jim Pinkerton column, stating that Huck's faith will be a help, not a hinderance, in this election cycle.:
In decades past, figures as different as Martin Luther King Jr. and Jimmy Carter were widely admired for letting their faith influence their policy positions. Is Huckabee to be held to a different standard?
Indeed, in times when crime and out-of-wedlock births are again on the upsurge, when football players are murdered in their homes, when Christmas shoppers are gunned down in Heartland shopping malls, more Americans might well be thinking: John Adams was right when he said that passions need to be bridled "by morality and religion."
As a culture, as a people, we need to do something different. And everybody knows it.
III:
RCP asks, "Whose behind the Drudge attack on Huck?"
Not the Democrats, according to this response from a DNC spokesperson solicited by the intrepid Jonathan Martin:
"We always appreciate having our hard work noticed, and we know Mitt Romney likes to feel special, but the truth is we've been tracking Huckabee for over a year. The Romney campaign should take heart in the fact that the Drudge Report is buying their spin hook, line and sinker because nothing in that story came from us."
d:
RCP's whodunnit story links to GreenMountainPolitics, who points out that this story is Team Mitt hitting the "panic button" and that Drudge has a dog in the fight (Romney), and is willingly participating in the Romney campaign's shenanigans. The post concludes with this update: "Turns out the DNC doesn't have any idea what Team RomDrudge is talking about."
In conclusion:
What's actually going on here?
1. There is an extremely devious bunch of Dem operatives over at the DNC that don't want to face Huck. As a result, they want GOP voters to think they do want to face Huck, and are leaking this story to scare off undecided GOP primary voters.
2. Mitt (or some other rival campaign) is leaking a fraudulent story in hopes of slowing Huck's ascent.
3. The Dems are extremely sloppy, and someone let leak that they're hoping for a Huck win.
What's definitely NOT going on here?
The Dems have a strategy to help Huck win the GOP nod, and have decided to announce it to the world by having upper level DNC officials leak it to the guy with the widest readership of any politically-oriented blog.
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December
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- Update your predictions!
- A semi-new development
- Just pop it back into place, Alice
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- Merry Christmas
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- Just asking,
- Mitt bouncing back?
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- Huck moves into the lead in Rasmussen Natl
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- I'm struggling here
- Rasmussen Shocker: Huck now tied for 1st nationally
- MSM Double-Standard (Episode MCCLXVI)
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4 comments:
Trying to look from the other side, it's hard to figure who the Dems are probably most scared of in general election. On the one hand, McCain probably has the most cross-over appeal and will steal the most Dem and Independent voters, reducing the number of votes for HillBama. I think to some extent Rudy might also be able to do this with Ind voters. On the other hand, McCain and Rudy are the least likely to energize the base, and as such will possibly also generate fewer votes for themselves.
In contrast, Huckabee (and perhaps Mitt) is unlikely to steal and Dem or Ind voters, b/c he will simply be painted as Bush lite. So he will generate the most votes possible for HillBama. At the same time, though, he is likely to generate the most votes for himself turning out the base, so you'll have another record turnout as in '04. If we assume conservatives still have a slight edge in voting population, and if we assume that in '08 SoCons will be more important to Repubs than FiCons or GWOT, then Huck is the worst candidate for the Dems.
At this point though I just don't have any read on the country, and whether they are still going to blanket reject another Bush-like candidate, or when it comes down to a general election Huck would prove to be the strongest candidate. One thing that helps: for all the voters who simply wanted "change" in '06 without any tangible meaning behind it, they in fact got nothing except the ouster of people who were actually willing to make decisions. The approval rating for this Congress is at an all-time low, and in fact continues to trail Bush.
Also, I hate to dredge up the popular word from '04 campaign, but gravitas comes to mind. I think people more than anything in '08 are going to rally behind whoever they think can provide true leadership and make intelligent decisions to move the country in the right direction. Unfortunately for the Repubs, the mood of the country is generally pessimistic (both in terms of polls on whether we are currently going in the right direction, as well as economy heading into '08), and I think Hillary if nothing else is viewed as intelligent and a leader. While people even in her own party don't trust her and think she is politically manipulative, they are probably willing to overlook that in favor of someone who they think will restore America's "image" around the world.
I'm not sure who the strongest Republican is on this attribute, but the perception is almost certainly Rudy.
Huck is a new breed. He's a crossover, populist-conservative candidate. He will appeal to many midwestern independents, the type of voter who believes in socially conservative policies, while at the same time supporting farm subsidies, protectionist legislation, and tougher immigration policy.
At the same time, Huck will turn off some traditional GOP voters in the northeast (the so-called country-club-republican vote).
I think this trade is a win for the GOP, b/c we'll pick up voters in swing states and lose voters in lost states.
Whether it leads to a further red-blue polarization of the country, and whether that is good for the nation, is another question altogether.
As for leadership and gravitas, I think McCain is, right now, viewed in a class by himself. That is probably why in the general election head-to-head polling, he's far and away the strongest Republican.
Rudy has had a bad month. I don't even think he's in the top two of the "most electable Republican candidates" anymore. I'd go McCain, Huck, then Romney/Rudy together. Rudy's poll #'s are stronger than Mitt's, but the trend is bad and the personal negatives have been building.