The Occasional Observer

Assuming this poll is true (ht: Drudge), Huck has Iowa even more locked up than I previously suspected.

With Huck's numbers also soaring across the South (namely in recent SC and NC polls), Huck is beginning to look the Southern parochial choice. With IA and SC setting up for him, he's setting up a multi-state tear that would give him tons of mo' heading into the 2/5 national primary. On his current trajectory, FL could end up being in play as well (which would be devastating to Rudy).

Outside of the South, NH is still critical. While winning is probably out of the question for Huck, a strong showing (3rd or better) in NH is essential for him to be seen as someone who can win outside of the South. That would place him ahead of Rudy, Mitt or McCain in a state with a relatively small evangelical vote and a tradition of voting for libertarians.

To do so, I think it would be smart for Huck to pivot now. His numbers are surging, so the natural instinct will be "if ain't broke, don't fix it." But it's important for him to remember he's still the least known of the major candidates nationally. While the religious right has gotten the message that Huck is their guy, there are also large swaths of independent and moderate Republican voters who are still judging the man. Many are turned off by overtly "preachy" language, and campagin stops like the pastor convention he just attended are not helpful in wooing such voters.

Rather than acting on the natural instinct to shore up recent gains, I'd like to see Huck move into the mode of wooing voters outside of his core constituency. These voters are still there to be had, but with the white hot spotlight now shining directly on Huck, the opportunity won't be there long. In short order, many Americans will be deciding if Huck is a religious man who is suited to be the President of a Repbulic without an established religion, or if 4 years of Sunday Sermons will be too much to take. Time for Huck to open his big-tent wide: he's got nothing left to prove to those of us who care about social issues.