The Occasional Observer

So says the "insider" over at Race 4 '12. Maybe he knows something, maybe he's floating a trial balloon, maybe he's using faulty logic. Who knows. But he certainly offers a very detailed explanation of why he thinks it's Pawlenty. I'll try and distill his argument as concisely as possible:

1) There's noise coming from the outer ring of T-Paw guys that Pawlenty's the pick. T-Paw's inner circle is remaining tight lipped.

2) "The Eagle" has heard there was an agreement that Mitt wouldn't drag T-Paw into the national spotlight as a short-list guy, only for Tim to fall short (again).  T-Paw went through it with McCain, and only agreed to be vetted by Mitt if he'd get an "easy landing"--e.g., some other spot in the administration, and dumped from consideration early in the process before the press heated up. It's too late for that soft landing now.

3) People close to the Pawlenty's have been watching Mary Pawlenty as an indicator. The Pawlentys need cash and Mary could be a high earner, but continues to avoid getting tied into a job that could impact Tim's being picked, or be difficult to get out of quickly.

4) Romney is doing all his campaigning in the Midwest, in rural/exurban districts that were light blue last time around. These are the kinds of districts where T-Paw helps the most, and Mitt's internal polling must be indicating he can make hay there.

5) T-Paw buys him as much a pass as Mitt can get with evangelical leadership.