The Occasional Observer

So, Nader's in. The question is, does it matter? Initially I was quite optimistic that this might be just the push necessary to derail the Dems and give McCain a better cushion for victory. This is especially so because so many people are still in the undecided category (at least 10% in almost every major poll).

However, my best guess is that it might not matter for three reasons. First, I think the Dem turnout will be at record levels this year, so as Obama said even if Nader peels off a few votes, it won't affect them. Second, the support for Obama (and Hillary to a lesser extent) are so strong that I don't see them losing many votes to Nader. Third, and perhaps most importantly, I doubt many Dems (even far lefties) are willing to blow this election by wasting a vote on Nader and handing us the victory. They saw what happened in 2000, and as a result Nader's vote total was microscopic in 2004. I think it potentially could be even lower this go around.

That said, I am still hopeful that perhaps Nader could play spoiler. One potential way is that once the Dems pick their nominee, if the other candidate's supporters are bitter perhaps they'd consider voting for Nader. For example, Hillary supporters may have such a dislike for Obama at this point that they'd consider Nader. But that seems like a slim long shot.