Wednesday, February 27, 2008
McCain VP
Fredo has done an excellent job summarizing various potential VP candidates for McCain. A difficulty in deciding who should be his VP is determining which group of voters is most critical to attract. A strength with one is often a weakness with another. The stances he has taken on issues that have most alienated conservatives are the very same reasons he is attractive to Indie and Dem voters.
So a big question is, which group is most important? Should he just take for granted that conservatives will not stay home, but in fact will turn out to vote for him, not wanting to live under four liberal years of Obama/Clinton and Dem Congress? Should he assume he will win the south, even though he has been wiped by Huckabee there? In these cases he should focus on further strengthening his appeal to moderates and Dems to steal as many votes as possible. On the other hand, if it's no slam dunk that he has conservative support, he very well may need to add a solid conservative VP.
At the end of the day, he'll have to guess which is the largest group of voters he can successfully tap into, and appeal to them.
Now, one other thought. Although it seems unbelievably slim, there is still a chance you could see a Hill/Obama ticket, especially if Hillary somehow pulls out the nomination as president. Her own finance chairman, Terry McAuliffe, just said as much. In that case, all bets above are off and I think it is simple: McCain must pick a VP with star appeal to have any shot of countering a heavyweight HillBama ticket. This means Rudy Giuliani or Colin Powell.
So a big question is, which group is most important? Should he just take for granted that conservatives will not stay home, but in fact will turn out to vote for him, not wanting to live under four liberal years of Obama/Clinton and Dem Congress? Should he assume he will win the south, even though he has been wiped by Huckabee there? In these cases he should focus on further strengthening his appeal to moderates and Dems to steal as many votes as possible. On the other hand, if it's no slam dunk that he has conservative support, he very well may need to add a solid conservative VP.
At the end of the day, he'll have to guess which is the largest group of voters he can successfully tap into, and appeal to them.
Now, one other thought. Although it seems unbelievably slim, there is still a chance you could see a Hill/Obama ticket, especially if Hillary somehow pulls out the nomination as president. Her own finance chairman, Terry McAuliffe, just said as much. In that case, all bets above are off and I think it is simple: McCain must pick a VP with star appeal to have any shot of countering a heavyweight HillBama ticket. This means Rudy Giuliani or Colin Powell.
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5 comments:
Well, I have three more profiles I still want to add: Crist, Fred and Mark Sanford. Plus there are plenty of other names that have been floated but still seem like long-shots right now: Rob Portman, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Michael Steele, Haley Barbour, Jim DeMint, Tom Coburn, Sam Brownback, J.C. Watts, Mike Huckabee, Chris Cox (Cox is intriguing), Duncan Hunter, Mike Pence, and Lindsey Graham, to name a few.
Let's have a little brainstorming session here. Which of the following will have the biggest impact on voters at the margins?
List 1: Policy attributes
-National Security creds/seeks victory in GWOT
-Economic policy creds/tax cutter
-Economic policy creds/spending hawk
-Economic policy creds/strong free trader
-Social conservative creds / conservative judiciary
List 2: Biographical attributes
-Age
-Identity politics (female/minority)
-Experience as an elected official
-Experience as an executive
-Will materially improve chances to win home state/swing state
And finally, what's more important for a veep, ideology/policies or biography?
BTW, with Dodd's endorsement of Obama yesterday, the door is officially opened for Obama-Dodd. This strikes me as a strong possibility, but Obama probably won't go with a long time Washington insider. Doesn't fit his soundbites.
I also don't think Obama would double down on minorities and go with Obama-Richardson (plus Richardson might still nominate Hill). Don't think O would pick Hill or that Hill would take it. Biden is too much of a loose cannon. Kaine has only been governor for a couple of years, not enough of a resume. Bayh would put IN in play, but is painfully boring a la Ridge.
Two white female governors would bring some executive experience to the table and help heal the wounds that female liberals might feel after the dismantling of the First Female President™, and are my presumptive first choices. Mark Warner is young like Obama, and would also radiate change, and is a popular swing-stater, though something strange was afoot with his decision not to run this year.
Here's my Dem short list
1. Sebelius (term limited out)
2. Napolitano
3. Warner
4. Dodd
5. Bayh
6(t). Biden/Richardson/Kaine
What about Webb as an Obama VP. That would be a strong ticket.
Oooo, MagBa, good one. How could I forget Webb? Hand in glove with O!'s message, plus a military background! Webb wants to pull out of Iraq yesterday, he hasn't been in DC long enough to "get corrupted," he's from a big swing state, he's a protectionist, has the gravitas, etc.
If he wasn't a white male he'd be a cinch. As it is, I'll put him at 1c along with Napolitano and Sebelius as 1a and 1b.