The Occasional Observer

Catch it here.

Stop being so selfish and spread the wealth, so sayeth The Obama.

If McCain had picked Mitt to be his VP, he'd be running stronger now.

I think true. I think McCain definitely would have gotten less initial pop from a Mitt selection than Palin, but I think over the longer run Mitt would have proven the better choice.

Alternatively, if McCain campaign had just given the media free and frequent access to Palin, rather than doling out infrequent interviews, perhaps the media would have glossed over her gaffes like they do with Biden. On second thought, that's my bad, I was imagining impartial journalists for a second there.

Of course you don't.

But somehow, I'm sure BusHitler has necessitated this move.

That's why it makes sense for Obama to throw out reporters who are from papers that endorsed McCain.

ht: Drudge

When Fredo has too much time on his hands, Fredo likes to watch Fredo use Excel.

While I'll spare you all 1000+ rows of potential EV/PV outcomes, and the resulting point totals, the bottom line goes something like this.

-SHK wins with most outcomes, including the most probable outcomes.

-Fredo wins if everything breaks McCain's way, and he ends up with 290 or more EV's (think "sweep" of swing states like FL, OH, PA, VA, MO, NV, and NM or CO).

-In a few unlikely outcomes, where McCain squeaks by with 273-285 EVs, yet runs up a PV majority over 50.5%, DC wins.

-MB looks like he's out of the running on this one.

but McCain's failure to strip his message down to one or two points is exactly what I feared a couple of days ago.

Economic growth. Traditional Values.

These are the two messages that McCain needs to hammer home. Instead we're getting a mish-mash.

If this thing turns out to be closer than many believe, these last few days are make-or-break.

It's an oldie but a goodie.

[NOTE: Not workplace appropriate]

Mark Steyn, from the Corner:

This is an amazing race. The incumbent president has approval ratings somewhere between Robert Mugabe and the ebola virus. The economy is supposedly on the brink of global Armageddon. McCain has only $80 million to spend, while Obama's burning through $600 mil as fast as he can, and he doesn't really need to spend a dime given the wall-to-wall media adoration. And tonight Chris Matthews' doctors announced that his leg tingle has metastasized leaving his entire body like a vibrating cellphone whose ringtone is locked on "I'm In Love, I'm In Love, I'm In Love, I'm In Love, I'm In Love With A Wonderful Guy."

And yet an old cranky broke loser is within two or three points of the King of the World. Strange.

on Fredo's cell phone:

Help Barack Get Out the Vote! Phonebank this weekend: 333 S. Service Rd, Plainview- Sat: 9am-9pm Sun: 9am-9am. Bring friends & cell phone!

Ohio: A park bench is a legitimate address for a voter.

Mississippi: Out-of-state or out-of-life doesn't bar you from voting.

ht: Drudge

Here's my question: if a park bench is good enough to register, how many New Yorkers, Illinoisans and Michiganders to you guess will be voting in Ohio?

Case in point--I signed up to get a text message back in August from the Obama camp so I could be among the "first to know" when he made his veep selection. I got my 7th or 8th text from his campaign today. It was asking me, as a New Yorker, if I was willing to volunteer to go to Pennsylvania. It didn't say that I should vote there, but I'm sure if a ballot and registration happened to be there as I arrived in Stroudsburg, their lawyers would fight to keep me from being disenfranchised.

There's only one hope McCain has down the stretch to seal the deal. And that is to show voters the real Obama. Make sure they understand he is the MOST liberal senator, with NO record of the bipartisanship he claims he will bring to the office. And make sure they understand the implications of Obama + 60 Dem Senators + Dem majority in House.

Hammer home his redistribution comments from this year and '01. Hammer home that only 50% of citizens pay taxes, so a 95% tax cut is nonsensical, and his plan is just poorly disguised income redistribution. Hammer home the negative impact of his tax plan on small businesses that are the ONLY growth engine hope to turn the economy around. Play up his unwillingness to have mandatory jail sentences. Play up his extreme position on abortion. Emphasize his "cling to guns and religion".

In other words, do what he should have been doing all along.

Take a few weeks off, lose your readership. Ratings, ratings, ratings.

Reliable as ever, the MSM is blacking out the story.

The ATR says Obama should start spreading his own wealth first, so that we can all see how it's done:

...if Obama’s tax-increase policies had been in place since 2001, he would have paid $250,727.70 in additional income taxes. This does not even count the additional Social Security payroll taxes he would have had to pay under his tax-increase plan, nor any interest or penalties.

“Obama talks a lot about “spreading the wealth” and “redistributing income,” said ATR President Grover Norquist. “Maybe he ought to start by “making a sacrifice” to the federal Treasury as part of his “patriotic duty.” We’ve even included a check for him.”

So Matt's emptying the vault. This one is another gem.

More interesting than the tired assaults on our founders as being racists, is where he places racism in the heirarchy of national virtues and vices. According to Obama, racism is "...the fundamental flaw of this country that continues to this day."

Interesting.

ICYMI, here's the interview that all the hubbub's about.

The McCain campaign nails him on it:

In a previously uncovered interview from September 6, 2001, Barack Obama expressed his regret that the Supreme Court hadn’t been more ‘radical’ and described as a ‘tragedy’ the Court’s refusal to take up ‘the issues of redistribution of wealth.’ No wonder he wants to appoint judges that legislate from the bench – as insurance in case a unified Democratic government under his control fails to meet his basic goal: taking money away from people who work for it and giving it to people who Barack Obama believes deserve it. Europeans call it socialism, Americans call it welfare, and Barack Obama calls it change.” [my emphasis]

— McCain-Palin Senior Policy Adviser Doug Holtz-Eakin

We all know that the meat of the normal distribution curve right now involves an Obama victory. But there is still a solid chunk of one side that involves a very close race. How close? Well, I could easily see a scenario where we end up near, or even at, a 269-269 tie. Check out this map, if you want to see a plausible tie outcome.

If the race is tied, Obama will be the next President, 99%. There has been some confusion about whether the present or newly elected House would ultimately cast the vote (one vote per state delegation), but either way, the Dems will have the edge.

But what's strange about the map above, is that the apparent tie may not actually be a tie.

In two states, Maine and Nebraska, state law does NOT allocate electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis. It is done on a congressional district basis. So in each state, the state wide winner gets 2 EVs for the state-wide win (representing the 2 US Senators), and then the winner within each Congressional District gets one EV per congressional district.

And we have seen in the recent past that one CD in Maine (the northern rural areas) trends more red than the state as a whole, while the CD around Omaha trends more blue than Nebraska as a whole.

Could McCain pick off the 2nd CD in Maine, and keep all of Nebraska's EV's? If so, even under the map proposed above, McCain could obtain a 270-268 EV win.

“I’m not interested in the suburbs. The suburbs bore me.”

-From the New York Times, 1/28/07

from a chain e-mail (via Beetz McDogg):

Today on my way to lunch I passed a homeless guy with a sign that read "Vote Obama, I need the money." I laughed.

Once in the restaurant, my server had on an "Obama 08" tie. Again I laughed. Just imagine the coincidence!

When the bill came I decided not to tip the server, and explained to him that I was exploring the Obama concept of redistribution of wealth. He stood there in disbelief while I told him that I was going to redistribute his tip to someone who I deemed "more in need"--the homeless guy outside. The server angrily stormed from my sight. I went outside, gave the homeless guy $10, and told him to thank the server inside as I decided he could use the money more. The homeless guy was grateful.

At the end of my rather unscientific redistribution experiment I realized the homeless guy was grateful for the money he did not earn, but the waiter was pretty angry that I gave away the money he did earn, even though the actual recipient "deserved" the money more.

I guess redistribution of wealth is an easier thing to swallow in concept than in practical application.

From a Gary Matthew Miller article entitled "We Are In For It", at Race 4 2008:

In a universe where reason prevailed, the 11th hour bombshell that the presumptive president-elect openly expressed contempt for the American Founding and admiration for Marxist dogma would be met with a 50-state rejection.

It appears, however, that we do not live in such a universe. As such, if you work, save and invest you are going to be sodomized for the next 4 years. It is no exaggeration to say that the American republic is about to become something radically different from what it has been heretofore.

With 3-4 vacancies looming on SCOTUS, it is clear that President Obama will use the opportunity to nominate justices for whom “redistributing wealth” is part of the job description.

Rules. Be. Damned.

Wes Anderson does a McCain ad (no, not really. I don't think.)

As the Dems continue down the road of election-rigging, what with 200,000 questionable new voter registrations in Ohio and out-of-staters setting up shop just to swing the election, it's nice to see that it's not just outside groups like ACORN getting in on the action.

Nope. Members of Obama's campaign have been caught casting illegal ballots.

Luckily, AG Mukasey has done nothing about this, and the Supreme Court has said the state GOP has no standing to sue over voter fraud (while not denying that such fraud may exist).

And we know that Obama is using his massive funding advantage to gear up a huge legal apparatus for election day and the following weeks. Think Courts will be hearing actions to keep the polls open late in every Dem leaning district in a swing state? Think multiple states will be tied up in lititgation?

Last but not least, I have McCain lawn sign coming in the mail, but I'm not sure if I should put it up. I don't feel like having to repair damage to my car and/or house.

Welcome to 2008, ladies and gentlemen. Sounds more like 1917, but hey, what can you do?

I've got a feeling that PA, FL, OH, NH, MO, and NV are still gettable for Mac. He needs all of them (save he could lose either NH or NV, but not both). The spreads that are showing up in national polls are ridiculously wide. And the number of non-responsive and undecided voters is unusually high for this late in the cycle.

Polls will tighten over the next two weeks.

Meanwhile, in the print (putting on my Chris Rock voice) MEDIA, Charles Krauthamer makes a compelling case for why Chris Buckley, Colin Powell, Ken Adelman and Chris Hitchens were crazy to abandon ship on the McCain campaign:

The case for McCain is straightforward. The financial crisis has made us forget, or just blindly deny, how dangerous the world out there is. We have a generations-long struggle with Islamic jihadism. An apocalyptic soon-to-be-nuclear Iran. A nuclear-armed Pakistan in danger of fragmentation. A rising Russia pushing the limits of revanchism. Plus the sure-to-come Falklands-like surprise popping out of nowhere.

Who do you want answering that phone at 3 a.m.? A man who's been cramming on these issues for the past year, who's never had to make an executive decision affecting so much as a city, let alone the world? A foreign policy novice instinctively inclined to the flabbiest, most vaporous multilateralism (e.g., the Berlin Wall came down because of "a world that stands as one"), and who refers to the most deliberate act of war since Pearl Harbor as "the tragedy of 9/11," a term more appropriate for a bus accident?

Or do you want a man who is the most prepared, most knowledgeable, most serious foreign policy thinker in the United States Senate? A man who not only has the best instincts but has the honor and the courage to, yes, put country first, as when he carried the lonely fight for the surge that turned Iraq from catastrophic defeat into achievable strategic victory?

There's just no comparison. Obama's own running mate warned this week that Obama's youth and inexperience will invite a crisis -- indeed a crisis "generated" precisely to test him. Can you be serious about national security and vote on Nov. 4 to invite that test?

And how will he pass it? Well, how has he fared on the only two significant foreign policy tests he has faced since he's been in the Senate? The first was the surge. Obama failed spectacularly. He not only opposed it. He tried to denigrate it, stop it and, finally, deny its success.

The second test was Georgia, to which Obama responded instinctively with evenhanded moral equivalence, urging restraint on both sides. McCain did not have to consult his advisers to instantly identify the aggressor.

Today's economic crisis, like every other in our history, will in time pass. But the barbarians will still be at the gates. Whom do you want on the parapet? I'm for the guy who can tell the lion from the lamb.

The NRA is running some beefy ads in the following weeks of the cycle. Check out this one and some of the others.

Luckily the local news media is there to expose them:

LONGWOOD, Fla. -- The home of a Central Florida Republican headquarters manager was shot up and damaged over his support of Sen. John McCain, the man told police.

Rog Coverely said several pellets pierced his Longwood home. Coverely showed several spiderwebbed-holes in the front windows of his home.

The Republican manager said he is convinced he was targeted because of new McCain signs he added around his home.

"All I can tell you is this, I have a very good relationship with my neighbors," Coverely said. "I mow my lawn. The only thing that has changed is I have two McCain signs in my front yard."

Coverely said he has taken about 300 calls concerning stolen or vandalized McCain signs in the area.

Thanks to WaTimes commenter Boxerwoody for the above catchphrase, which neatly summarizes today's devastating WaTimes indictment of Obama's judgment, in lingo that our liberal bretheren will find familiar and digestable.

Mark Hyman's article, "Obama's Kenya Ghosts", revisits the impact of Barack Obama's involvment in Kenyan politics. He begins with the endpoint: a series of grizzly attacks against Kenyans who opposed the Presidential candidicacy of Raila Odinga.

By mid-February 2008, more than 1,500 Kenyans were killed. Many were slain by machete-armed attackers. More than 500,000 were displaced by the religious strife. Villages lay in ruin. Many of the atrocities were perpetrated by Muslims against Christians.

It was no accident that Odinga's rise led to violence against Christians. He had entered into a pact with Muslim leaders in Kenya. He first denied it, then later admitted to it:

Mr. Odinga had the backing of Kenya's Muslim community heading into the election. For months he denied any ties to Muslim leaders, but fell silent when Sheik Abdullahi Abdi, chairman of the National Muslim Leaders Forum, appeared on Kenya television displaying a memorandum of understanding signed on Aug. 29, 2007, by Mr. Odinga and the Muslim leader. Mr. Odinga then denied his denials.

The details of the MOU were shocking. In return for Muslim backing, Mr. Odinga promised to impose a number of measures favored by Muslims if he were elected president. Among these were recognition of "Islam as the only true religion," Islamic leaders would have an "oversight role to monitor activities of ALL other religions," installation of Shariah courts in every jurisdiction, a ban on Christian preaching, replacement of the police commissioner who "allowed himself to be used by heathens and Zionists," adoption of a women's dress code, and bans on alcohol and pork.

This is the man who's rise to power was made possible by none other than Barack Obama:

Initially, Mr. Odinga was not the favored opposition candidate to stand in the 2007 election against President Mwai Kibaki, who was seeking his second term. However, he received a tremendous boost when Sen. Barack Obama arrived in Kenya in August 2006 to campaign on his behalf. Mr. Obama denies that supporting Mr. Odinga was the intention of his trip, but his actions and local media reports tell otherwise.

Mr. Odinga and Mr. Obama were nearly inseparable throughout Mr. Obama's six-day stay. The two traveled together throughout Kenya and Mr. Obama spoke on behalf of Mr. Odinga at numerous rallies. In contrast, Mr. Obama had only criticism for [incumbent President] Kibaki.

In language that should sound chillingly familiar to American voters, here's how Obama justified his support for a man who would, in short order, be at the head of a bloodthirsty mob:

"Kenyans are now yearning for change," he declared. The intent of Mr. Obama's remarks and actions was transparent to Kenyans - he was firmly behind Mr. Odinga.

Despite Obama's denial that he was trying to aid Odinga, their ties run deep:

Mr. Odinga and Mr. Obama had met several times before the 2006 trip. Reports indicate Mr. Odinga visited Mr. Obama during trips to the U.S. in 2004, 2005 and 2006. Mr. Obama sent his foreign policy adviser Mark Lippert to Kenya in early 2006 to coordinate his summer visit. Mr. Obama's August trip coincided with strategizing by Orange Democratic Movement leaders to defeat Mr. Kibaki in the upcoming elections. Mr. Odinga represented the ODM ticket in the presidential race.

Mr. Odinga and Mr. Obama's father were both from the Luo community, the second-largest tribe in Kenya, but their ties run much deeper. Mr. Odinga told a stunned BBC Radio interviewer the reason why he and Mr. Obama were staying in near daily telephone contact was because they were cousins. In a Jan. 8, 2008, interview, Mr. Odinga said Mr. Obama had called him twice the day before while campaigning in the New Hampshire primary before adding, "Barack Obama's father is my maternal uncle."

Odinga intentionally used mass violence and the threat of violence to boost his political ambitions (i.e., he is a terrorist). His use of fear was calculated to gain him political advantage. And his calculation paid off:

President Kibaki requested a meeting of all opposition leaders in early January in an effort to quell the violence. All agreed to attend except Mr. Odinga. A month later, Mr. Kibaki offered Mr. Odinga the role of prime minister, the de facto No. 2 in the Kenyan government, in return for an end to the attacks. Mr. Odinga was sworn in on April 17, 2008.

Hyman's summation stands on its own:

Mr. Obama's judgment is seriously called into question when he backs an official with troubling ties to Muslim extremists and whose supporters practice ethnic cleansing and genocide. It was Islamic extremists in Kenya who bombed the U.S. Embassy in 1998, killing more than 200 and injuring thousands. None of this has dissuaded Mr. Obama from maintaining disturbing loyalties.

Dems currently have 51 seats (including 2 independents that caucus Dem), and need 9 for a filibuster proof majority. In reality a pick up of 7 gives them a filibuster proof majority on most issues, since they can count on a few weak republicans to defect on any difficult issue.

According to RCP poll averages, Dems are currently leading in 8 races that would be takeaways from the GOP. They are:

Virginia - M Warner over Gilmore +27% (John Warner retiring)
New Mexico - Udall over Pearce +17.6% (Pete Domenici retiring)
Colorado - Udall over Schaffer +9.3% (Wayne Allard retiring)
New Hampshire - Shaheen over Sununu (inc) +5.9%
Oregon - Merkley over Smith (inc) +3.7%
North Carolina - Hagan over Dole (inc) +2.7%
Minnesota - Franken over Coleman (inc) +2.2%
Alaska - Begich over Stevens (inc) +0.6%

Additionally, the Dem challenger is within 3 points of a GOP incumbent in 3 states:

Kentucky (McConnell)
Mississippi (Wicker)
Georgia (Chambliss)

Happy Wednesday!

When Obama wins and Dems pick up filibuster-proof Senate, WSJ shows us what's in store. Not pretty. And you can guarantee that Obama will be raising taxes even higher than he claims now, with a liberal Congress and MSM cheering him on all the way.

Why, why, why didn't Republican voters understand that Mitt would've been a much stronger candidate? That was true even before this economic crisis, but is overwhelmingly true today. I can just imagine him mopping the floor with Obama on economic policy debate.

This is why Obama will win with just a smile.

Why is this a problem?

This guy really gets it. Hope the McCain camp is paying attention.

Courtesy of the greatest web-series ever: Red Vs. Blue

William Donohue makes the (tounge-in-cheek) case here. Paging Prof Kmiec?

This past week:

1) It has become increasingly clear that the Prince of Darkness will be elected President of the United States, potentially with a super majority in Congress.

2) The world economy has crashed, and along with it, my 401K and much of my non-retirement holdings.

3) The University of Michigan, the winningest team in the history of collegiate football, is 2 - 4, after suffering a loss to the University of Toledo, in Ann Arbor. They have not finished under .500 in more than 40 seasons.

4) The Detroit Lions are on track to go 0 - 16, and my surrogate team, the New England Patriots are without Tom Brady.

Fredo, in times like this, what can I do to hold my head up? Is Scotch the only answer???

I just can't watch our country spiral downwards towards socialism lite.

But from the 5 minutes I caught of this debate tonight, I can't help but feel like the Dems have their best and brightest on the stage, and we do not.

Let's be honest: Mitt would have been a much stronger candidate, particularly in light of capital markets blowing up.

When will McCain start running ads hitting Obama and the Dems for their responsibility for the current economic meltdown? I'd like ads highlighting the attempts Republicans made to increase regulation of FNMA/FMAC (including tighter lending standards), but were rebuffed by Dems. The same Dems, who by the way, are #1, #2, and #3 in contributions received from FNMA/FMAC:

1. Chris Dodd
2. Barack Obama
3. John Kerry

John McCain actually foresaw this in '05, after Bush did years earlier, and pushed to correct it. The Dems refused, since they were on the take. The irony that the public is now punishing McCain and the Repubs in the polls is sickening. I wish people would take 2 seconds to educate themselves.

I suppose there is, but for now, he's it. At least there's American Carol.

Only a 30 second clip, but watch until the end. Solid ad by Sununu.