The Occasional Observer

While I'd love to look forward to 2012 as the year we recapture the White House, it seems highly likely that things will be lined up for an Obama 2nd term. Even if the economy is down for the next 18 months, and even if Obama implements poor policy choices that delay recovery, it is highly unlikely that we will still be in an economic downturn in 4 years. Economy will likely have at least 1-2 years of growth under its belt at that time, for which Obama (with the MSM's help) will take full credit.

Iraq is the one interesting question. Bush/Petraeus have already set events in motion that would allow for significant troop withdrawals in less than 4 years. If Obama changes his position and follows a Bush-like plan for withdrawal, although he will upset some of his supporters in the short term who want immediate withdrawal, he will end up with big support in 4 years for a highly successful withdrawal. Again, the credit here largely would belong to Petraeus and Bush, but Obama will be given full credit. However, if he sticks with his campaign promise and implements a quick troop withdrawal - regardless of conditions on the ground - just to appease his supporters, he risks creating a real travesty that could sink him.

He could also sink himself if he goes too far with tax hikes (lowers his definition of "rich"), or too far left on social policies. But here's the bottom line: if he plays his cards right Obama will be the lucky recipient of the timing of various cycles that could set him and the Dems up for a real strong showing in 2012.