The Occasional Observer

Let's go for some very early polling. Right now all indications are that '08 election will be a battle of all-stars between widely known names (Hillary vs. Rudy or McCain). But as each party gets to know their candidates better, will these early front-runners with dominant leads remain? How do people see primaries playing out?

For Dems, I don't see anyone knocking off Hillary. Her early lead is too big. With the political machine she has working for her that lead is insurmountable, especially from someone with as little experience as Obama.

Repub primary is a lot muddier, but I think Mitt will win and here's how. (1) If Newt enters, all other nominees will successfully label him as unelectable in general election, effectively killing nomination of candidate who is otherwise most likely top choice of Republican base. (2) Rudy probably could overcome being pro-gun-control and maybe even being pro-gay-marriage, but there is simply no way he can win Republican primary being pro-choice. (3) McCain has the same problem as Rudy - he is more popular in general election than within his own party. He's alienated Repubs too many times, he can't win primary. (4) I don't think Republicans will put up a lesser-known name against Hillary, unless one of the others (Huckabee, Hunter, Tancredo, etc.) really comes on strong and blows away the party. It is really going to be hard as one of these candidates to rise above the shadows that McCain and Rudy cast, and make a name for yourself. Especially if enough SoCons become convinced that Mitt is genuinely conservative, and they don't mind his being Mormon.

That said, top issues in '08 will likely be terrorism and spiraling health care costs + entitlement spending. Whoever establishes themselves as the leader on these issues early on will do themselves a favor.