Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Some encouraging poll numbers
for a change.
McCain leading in Mizzou by 7%, according to SUSA. That's huge.
And here's the chart of the daily Gallup tracking poll. As Sean Oxendine at R 4 '08 asked, is this the end of the Obama bounce?
McCain leading in Mizzou by 7%, according to SUSA. That's huge.
And here's the chart of the daily Gallup tracking poll. As Sean Oxendine at R 4 '08 asked, is this the end of the Obama bounce?
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3 comments:
You beat me to posting this, but I have a broader question. Can someone explain the enormous discrepancy among the recent polls? Gallup says tied, Rasmussen (likely most accurate) says Obama +4 to +6, and Newsweek/LA Times/Bloomberg polls show Obama +15.
Is it likely vs. registered? Is it poor determination of true likely with uncertainty about "new electoral map" in '08? Is it leading questions? Or are people so unsure that the margin of error is enormous today?
Well, the McCain campaign took the time to rebuff the LA Times/Newsweek poll--the sample consisted of something like 21% Rep/34% Dem/ 32% Ind and 12% unknown. It was basically a complete BS poll.
Gallup and Rasmussen both have track records of being reliable, and Gallup's track record is quite long.
Gallup & Ras (& I think LA Times) were all LV, not RV polls, but that's only as good as the LV screen.