Monday, June 16, 2008
VP
So we've done a few polls here about who we think will be the VP choice for McCain. Another interesting question is who do you think it should be? If you were advising McCain, who would you recommend?
I think the first issue to address is whether McCain's odds of winning improve by adding a conservative or moderate VP. Which choice is the bigger net winner for him? It's tough to figure whether conservative voters really will stay home (or vote for Barr) if McCain doesn't add a conservative VP to the ticket. It's also tough to figure whether additional Independents or Dems, beyond those already committed to voting for McCain, would switch over if he added a moderate like Ridge or Rudy. My take on this is: go conservative. I think shoring up the base is a real requirement for McCain, whereas I don't think he'll lose that many Indy votes. (I don't think he has that many solid Indy votes in the first place.)
Next, should he pick a VP based on trying to win swing state(s), or trying to shore up an area of weakness? Specifically, it is clear that economy is #1 issue this election. While Obama certainly has no great claims to economic experience, his populist message is (sadly) resonating with voters. Economy is McCain's weakness, and unless he adds a Romney or Fiorina I think he'll have a hard time convincing people that his economic plan is actually the better choice for long-term US success. So he could go Ridge just to try to put PA into play (or Crist to lock up FL), but he may be better off picking someone based on a specific set of (economic) creds.
Overall, I think Jindal might be the best choice, except for his age. It adds a solid conservative to the ticket, locks up the south, counters Obama's intelligence and eloquence, and somewhat lessens all the hype around Obama being a minority. Downsides to picking Jindal are that he may be perceived as too young, and ironically may cause further scrutiny of McCain's age and scripted-speech speaking ability, given the contrast with Jindal. Also, I liken this a bit to a team calling up a player from AAA too soon. If Jindal runs this year and they lose, it possibly might taint him for the future, whereas if you wait 4 years until he's 41 it might be better. On the other hand, there may be upside to getting him some national exposure this year; it may strengthen his chances in 4 years.
I think the first issue to address is whether McCain's odds of winning improve by adding a conservative or moderate VP. Which choice is the bigger net winner for him? It's tough to figure whether conservative voters really will stay home (or vote for Barr) if McCain doesn't add a conservative VP to the ticket. It's also tough to figure whether additional Independents or Dems, beyond those already committed to voting for McCain, would switch over if he added a moderate like Ridge or Rudy. My take on this is: go conservative. I think shoring up the base is a real requirement for McCain, whereas I don't think he'll lose that many Indy votes. (I don't think he has that many solid Indy votes in the first place.)
Next, should he pick a VP based on trying to win swing state(s), or trying to shore up an area of weakness? Specifically, it is clear that economy is #1 issue this election. While Obama certainly has no great claims to economic experience, his populist message is (sadly) resonating with voters. Economy is McCain's weakness, and unless he adds a Romney or Fiorina I think he'll have a hard time convincing people that his economic plan is actually the better choice for long-term US success. So he could go Ridge just to try to put PA into play (or Crist to lock up FL), but he may be better off picking someone based on a specific set of (economic) creds.
Overall, I think Jindal might be the best choice, except for his age. It adds a solid conservative to the ticket, locks up the south, counters Obama's intelligence and eloquence, and somewhat lessens all the hype around Obama being a minority. Downsides to picking Jindal are that he may be perceived as too young, and ironically may cause further scrutiny of McCain's age and scripted-speech speaking ability, given the contrast with Jindal. Also, I liken this a bit to a team calling up a player from AAA too soon. If Jindal runs this year and they lose, it possibly might taint him for the future, whereas if you wait 4 years until he's 41 it might be better. On the other hand, there may be upside to getting him some national exposure this year; it may strengthen his chances in 4 years.
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5 comments:
The right choice by McCain will be one that is about governing, not politics. The nominee must be ready to be POTUS in an emergency, and the public has to have no doubts. A pick that doesn't meet this requirement, but helps McCain in some other way (e.g., on a specific issue, in a specific state), will not pass the smell test with the public. It will be viewed as proof that Obama is Change and McCain is McSame.
So which of the frequently mentioned possibles meet the "readiness" requirement?
The highest echelon of possibles would be those who have direct experience in the defense, state, or homeland security apparatus.
Rice or Ridge meet this test. Rice is radioactive, IMO, due to her direct involvement in deciding to invade Iraq and building the case for the war.
To me, the obvious choice, but for his connection to Bush, is Ridge.
Unfortunately, the connection to Bush looms large--it may outweigh the other benefits.
The next echelon of possibles are those who have successfully run states or other large government entities under crisis condiditons.
This category belongs to Rudy alone (Haley Barbour too, but he's not any short list).
The next echelon are those with a track record of executive competence. Mitt, followed by T Paw, Sanford, Huckabee, and maybe Crist.
Jindal and Palin are too green to make the case they are "ready". (sorry DC)
So, in my mind, that's your shortlist.
Of those, my idelogy would be best served by Huck, Sanford or Pawlenty the most.
But if I were advising McCain, I'd probably tell him to go with Ridge or Rudy. It would be based on the internal polling data I had on the favorable/unfavorables for the two, and on whether most people feel Ridge is completely attached to Bush.
BTW, looks like Gingrich supports Jindal as the best VP choice for McCain. He addresses the experience issue head-on.
As for Huck, he apparently has decided his future is on TV, not in politics, by joining Fox as a political analyst.
I'd agree with you that the choice for VP should be capable of being POTUS, but I disagree on the public having any smell test. If they did, no way Obama is the Dem nominee. He only has 3 years Senate experience, is very young, and not much other experience. The honest truth is that if he were white, he would not have garnered even 5% of the primary vote.
I agree on Rice, which is unfortunate b/c she seems quite competent.
If they did, no way Obama is the Dem nominee.
Remember: the Dem nomination was in large part decided by a small group of Iowa caucus-goers, not even primary voters. This is a subset of a subset, and they (and other early caucus states) voted before most of the negative stuff that hit Obama came out. Hillary won like 9 out of the last 11 contests. That should tell you something.
Having checked, it was actually 6 of the last 9:
Obama (OR, MT, NC)
Hillary (PA, WV, IN, KY, ND, PR)
That's true, although I have to say I'm surprised that Obama's favorables are still so high. According to today's Rasmussen daily poll, he and McCain are essentially tied with both having 54-55% favorable ratings and 43-44% unfavorable. What's even more surprising is that Obama kills McCain in very favorable ratings, 31% to 17% (although he is also higher in very unfavorable ratings).
I just don't see how Obama seemingly hasn't taken a big hit after all the stuff about wright, flegler, rezko, ayers, etc. It's as though people aren't paying attention; are afraid of distancing from Obama for PC reasons; or are just so fed up with Bush and economy that they don't care who they elect as long as it's a Dem.