The Occasional Observer

First the good news. In both the LA Times/Bloomberg and Rasmussen polls, McCain is leading BOTH Obama and Hillary. Good agreement between the polls as well, with McCain having the highest favorability ratings of all 3, and beating Obama on GWOT, Iraq, AND the economy. If McCain can maintain the edge on both foreign and domestic policies, he's in.

Now the bad news: he still loses according to the Rasmussen electoral tracker. Could we see another situation where he wins the popular vote but loses the electoral?

Actually, what I'm having a harder time reconciling is the above polls with actual voter turnout so far. Dems have way outnumbered Repubs in primary voting, so what gives? The polls suggest a tight race with the edge to McCain, while the turnout to date suggests a Dem landslide. Are traditional polls underestimating actual turnout this year, such that when they look at likely voters they are underestimating Dem support? Or are people flocking to McCain now that he's the presumptive nominee? Keep in mind though, that with all these polls ~10% are still undecided, which is a HUGE chunk in a race this tight.