Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Super Tuesday
Well, what did we learn from last night's results:
1. Clinton machine is not an automatic thing, Obama is still well alive.
2. CW says governors usually win, not senators. Yet with very high certainty we will have a general election between two senators this year.
3. Everyone keeps talking about "change", yet the front runners are the two most establishment politicians from both parties: McCain and Hillary. As Mitt has said, you won't get change in Washington by just sending the same people back in different seats.
4. Huck did well in the south, but has no appeal elsewhere in the country. He is well behind in delegate count and I think it is probably time for him to drop out. I'm not sure about Mitt; he has broader appeal than Huck, but probably not enough support to win. I'm still glad I voted for him; I think it is important that everyone vote their first choice during primary so the party nominates the person we truly want. Unfortunately for Mitt I think being Mormon sunk any chance he had in the south, which I was concerned about from day 1.
5. Mitt got a majority in his home state (51%), while McCain did not (48%). To Fredo's point in the comments from previous thread, I'm glad b/c McCain was so arrogant about his endorsements from Boston Globe and Herald (as if being endorsed by two left-wing papers is anything to be proud of as a Republican candidate).
Now the fun begins, we'll see what Rush, Ann, Sean, Laura, et al. have to say about McCain's solid lead.
1. Clinton machine is not an automatic thing, Obama is still well alive.
2. CW says governors usually win, not senators. Yet with very high certainty we will have a general election between two senators this year.
3. Everyone keeps talking about "change", yet the front runners are the two most establishment politicians from both parties: McCain and Hillary. As Mitt has said, you won't get change in Washington by just sending the same people back in different seats.
4. Huck did well in the south, but has no appeal elsewhere in the country. He is well behind in delegate count and I think it is probably time for him to drop out. I'm not sure about Mitt; he has broader appeal than Huck, but probably not enough support to win. I'm still glad I voted for him; I think it is important that everyone vote their first choice during primary so the party nominates the person we truly want. Unfortunately for Mitt I think being Mormon sunk any chance he had in the south, which I was concerned about from day 1.
5. Mitt got a majority in his home state (51%), while McCain did not (48%). To Fredo's point in the comments from previous thread, I'm glad b/c McCain was so arrogant about his endorsements from Boston Globe and Herald (as if being endorsed by two left-wing papers is anything to be proud of as a Republican candidate).
Now the fun begins, we'll see what Rush, Ann, Sean, Laura, et al. have to say about McCain's solid lead.
Labels:
2008
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
AddThis
Always sniffing for the truth
Contributors
Links
- Love and Lunchmeat
- Long Island Prepper
- Fredo's Mets Blog
- Continental Sausage
- Human Events
- Maker's Mark
- Michelle Malkin
- National Review
- Newt Gingrich
- NRO
- Pro Ecclesia
- Ralfy's Whisky Reviews
- Red Albany
- Res Publica et Cetera
- Sour Mash Manifesto
- Straight Bourbon
- Taki Mag
- The American Conservative
- The American Spectator
- The Anchoress Online
- The Politico
- The Weekly Standard
- Wild Turkey Bourbon
Blog Archive
-
▼
2008
(731)
-
▼
February
(84)
- Just Another Hollywood Bimbo, Only Dumber
- The troop surge in Iraq is working
- Some insightful anthropology
- Obama's rhetoric is a strength.
- Check out the new Obama pic in the sidebar
- Gamecock stuffs his PC-police dossier ...
- Buckley on Iraq
- Not another dime to the MSM.
- A note to contributors
- Mason-Dixon FL poll
- This is an O!bamanation
- Obama-McCain
- Veep Watch #7: Mark Sanford
- Veep Watch #6: Charlie Crist
- Veep Watch #5: Fred D. Thompson
- Good news/bad news
- I can add little but my profound gratitude
- Obama! for a strong defense
- McCain VP
- Veep Watch #4: Tim Pawlenty
- Yes He Can
- Veep Watch #3: Rudy Giuliani
- McCain v. Obama
- Veep Watch #2: Tom Ridge
- The Lion of Good Government
- A bit of advertising from pg 1 of today's Journal:
- The Rage is Indescribable
- Anthropogenic global warming is real.
- Ironic
- This ship is sinking fast The Ship Be Sinking
- If Ralph Nader falls in a forest, does he make a n...
- Huckabee gets the final word in
- Barack Obama
- Hackabee
- Amen, Brother
- Obama on Cuba
- Say Hello to...
- Rise of the Obamatons
- Ice, Ice, (O)Baby
- A little more background on the Times flap
- And the beat marches on...
- Coining a new term
- Michelle Obama
- McCain v Obama: current polls
- Veep Watch: Condi?
- The coming chaos: Dem convention edition
- Fredo's Mad Money Challenge - Final Results
- Happy Birthday, D.C.
- It's already starting
- McCain throws down the gauntlet
- A Churchillian Republican
- "Super" Bowl?
- Romney endorsement?
- Time of death - call it
- Just to Make Sure We're All on the Same Page
- "Straight Talk"?
- Gearing up
- 2044
- 2012
- Obama supporters: creative little buggers
- Senator McCain's Post-Potomac Primary Presser
- The end of the beginning and a question for our co...
- Antonin
- Paul "refocused" on Congressional primary, still i...
- Obama time?
- Delegates
- Huck wins LA, KS. WA too close to call. Paul say...
- GOP candidates on judicial appointments
- Dem plan of attack against McCain
- Tampa Bay: The Midway Island of 2008
- McCain at CPAC
- Mittmentum..
- Super Tuesday
- Liveblogging Tsunami Tuesday
- Watch the results roll in
- What does it all mean?
- Final thoughts on Mega-Huge-Super-Duper Tuesday
- This made me laugh,
- They keep lining up...
- Thank you, Bill Kristol
- WOW
- Catholics for McCain
- Olson, Estrada back McCain
- Dem numbers
-
▼
February
(84)
8 comments:
BTW, Huck's chances to get VP nomination have to have shot up last night. If Huck can carry south and McCain can carry north (and could we maybe steal CA???), we could have general election in the bag.
I just want to close my eyes, open them in November, and hope for the best.
Somehow I don't see McCain picking Huck. He's just not his kind of politician. It would be a smart move, though, IMHO.
Mitt's got to be thinking about dropping out now. I mean, what's the point? He's not going to win, and he's not going to run a cheap campaign a la Huckabee, live off the land, and be satisfied with getting a lot of votes and coming in 2nd or 3rd. At some point he's just going to want to bank his money for his family or for some future run.
A total flyer, but if Mitt does drop out, does a draft somebody movement get going in the talkosphere? I mean, McCain still has a long way to go to get to 1100 and whatever delegates he needs to win. A challenger could still come in and deny him a majority and take this thing to a brokered convention.
Newt kept saying the cycle lasted too long. Maybe 6 months will treat him better than 24...
Or maybe Rick Santorum's hatred of McCain will be enough to coax him into the game.
Yeah, there really still are a lot of unanswered questions. One reason for Mitt to hang around is to build his position for 2012 assuming Hill/Bama wins. I read some article the other week (maybe Hewitt?) that pointed out that the person who finishes 2nd in primaries often is in great pole position for subsequent election. So maybe he wants to cement his visibility, commitment, and status as "the" person who is conservative and can coalesce the Republican party. On the other hand, if he can't shake whatever is holding him back now (Mormon? Northeast money? late to the party on certain conservative issues?), I'm not sure that can change by 2012, so Republican party will need to find a stronger candidate.
My gut was previously telling me that for VP McCain would definitely pick someone less conservative like him, such as Lindsey Graham or Rudy. However, seeing his inability to win southern or western states (except CA), and inability to win over conservative talk radio, I have to think he is strongly considering whether he could drum up enough base support to win without adding someone like Huck or Fred to the ticket. My money says his own advisers plus RNC will guide him towards picking someone who is capable of energizing conservative base, and getting talk radio to fall in line. But i just don't know who he already owes what.
Interesting points about McCain and CPAC raised by Babbin at Human Events here.
BTW SHK, while you and I have both mentioned Mitt positioning himself for a '12 or '16 run, and Mitt may be thinking the same way, I think it's basically a pipe dream.
While Mitt has proven himself to be a uniquely qualified indiviudal to be President, he has proven himself to be fairly inept at getting elected. He's had a lot of wind at his back the past few weeks, and has made little to no headway. The guy just doesn't connect. I don't see any future for him in Presidential politics at this point assuming there are any other attractive fresh faces that come out to play in '12 (Sanford, Pawlenty, Jindal).
I agree that Mitt's probably got no future in politics, which is unfortunate b/c he's clearly heads and shoulders better than most options out there. Not only is he smarter and more driven, but he is very effective at communicating. But, whether it's because he's a Mormon, or because the MSM gave him no support, or because he approached his platform the wrong way, it seems unlikely he will have much success, now or in the future.