The Occasional Observer

5 comments:

Fredo said...

I don't particularly see Huck's presence in the race as anything worth getting riled up about at this point. Huck is saying he wants to force a brokered convention b/c it's the one conceivable "reason" for his candidacy to go on. Of course, it's a bogus reason, because he couldn't force a brokered convention, even if he started winning every state from here on out (which he won't).

The real reason he's still running is, as you suggest, self-promotion: he wants to keep upping his name ID with voters, and more importantly, to continue making connections with local conservative/populist leaders in important states like Ohio and Texas (and maybe Pennsylvania, if he hangs around that long). These relationships will form the foundations for his campaign organization when he runs in 2012. And that's the only conclusion that I draw from his continued presence on the stage: that he is planning on running again.

Unlike Mitt, who will get establishment backing more quickly than Huck, and therefore will raise money quicker (nevermind his personal wealth), Huckabee will need a grassroots network if he is to compete with Mitt or some other well-funded opponent in 4 years.

Huck can't really hurt McCain now (unless he went negative against him, which he has not done, at all). He's not hurting the party. The only real risk he takes by staying in is making himself look foolish-- "Oh look, here's that loony ex-fat guy who likes to hang around TV cameras."

That hasn't happened yet, as Huck continues to run up respectable vote totals, so there's really no risk to him at this point.

2/22/2008 11:35 PM

SheaHeyKid said...

I think Huck's continued presence at this point does hurt the Republicans, because every time Huck gets votes, the MSM loves pointing out that conservatives still haven't flocked to McCain despite his inevitability as the nominee. I think continuing to drive home this picture of fracture is not helpful, and could lead to a further reinforcement of anti-McCain position among certain conservatives. People who otherwise might start reconciling their own positions with McCain's and getting more comfortable about voting for him in November are instead focusing more on why they don't like McCain.

My main concern is that from the primary turnout it is painfully clear that Dem voters look to significantly outnumber Repubs, and we'll need every vote we can get in Nov. To do so, the party needs to rally around one person ASAP, to start getting people not only comfortable but excited. I think Huck's presence dangerously delays that process, for the sole reason of his own benefit. Whereas Mitt was willing to step aside for the good of the party, Huck clearly is not.

Of course, if Huck still had a legitimate chance to win the nomination I would be the first person saying it is wholly inappropriate to suggest he should bow out. Such a move would smack of a coronation and is not in the party's best interest. But given that Huck mathematically can't win, and is still only 3rd despite competing in 8 races with only two viable candidates, his actions are very selfish IMO.

2/23/2008 9:24 AM

SheaHeyKid said...

Not to mention, think about the positive effect a Huck withdrawal and McCain endorsement could have on the party and McCain's campaign. It would help fend off attacks from conservative pundits; help McCain's fundraising; and help rally the party.

I think Huck has established his name; now is the time for him to help his party.

2/23/2008 9:41 AM

Fredo said...

Well, I respectfully disagree. I don't think Huck's presence is preventing the party from unifying. McCain won a majority of consevatives in WI and that trend will continue.

The folks supporting Huck have not used any slash-and-burn tactics. And Huck himself goes out of his way to praise McCain (contrast with how Mitt went after McCain in the days leading up to Super Tuesday, when he repeatedly called on Republicans not to vote for "a liberal").

Where I agree with you is that Huck could have earned some loyalist points by graciously withdrawing and endorsing McCain. Unfortunately, that ship may have sailed at this point.

2/23/2008 10:30 AM

Fredo said...

Weird. Yet again, The Politico needed to read OccObs, "the blog of record," before releasing this story on the Huckabee candidacy.

Jonathan Martin uses my conclusion (without attribution, by the way), that Huck is actually running for 2012 at this point. Martin focuses more on SHK's point that Huck is "running for second," then my point about laying the building blocks for a grass-roots organization. To my mind, the "second place" thing is more spin than reality.

Mitt won more states and delegates by using his money/organizational advantage (which is, of course, fair game) to roll up basically uncontested wins in caucuses that were below the radar (think SD, WY, CO, etc.). The only contested race he won that wasn't a home state for him was NV (MI, UT, and MA were home base advantage for him--and good for him for having 3 home states). And NV was, let's face it, a major back seat to SC on the same day.

Mitt will be regarded in the MSM as the 2nd place finisher this year, but without being able to defeat his opponents head-to-head (Huck in IA/TN/GA, McCain in NH/SC/FL), I feel that Huck was the more effective candidate.

2/23/2008 11:27 AM